Future Earnings

Guy Kawasaki

CEO of Garage.com, an online venture financing company that helps early-stage tech start-ups, and author of Rules for Revolutionaries: The Capitalist Manifesto for Creating and Marketing New Products and Services (HarperCollins)

I see a return to the 3 Cs of the Internet-commerce, content and community. Right now, B2C and B2B are somewhat cold, and infrastructure and tools are hot. But at some point, the infrastructure and the tools will be there. Then, it'll be like, "We have this great, big, wonderful pipe all over the world. We've got to [put] stuff through it." Commerce is fairly obvious. Content-there'll be a providing of information, and people will [design] an economic model using something more sophisticated than selling advertising . . . maybe paid subscriptions or affiliation fees. Community-groups of senior citizens, parents, etc.-these communities will develop. They've been developing, though it's not a hot segment right now. [In 2001,] it'll resurface.

Rohit Deshpande

Professor of marketing at Harvard Business School

Many markets in Eastern Europe, what was part of the earlier Communist bloc, and several markets in the Far East and Asia have only recently opened up to importing products and starting joint ventures with Western companies. Traditionally, companies from the West sold older-generation products and systems to these markets. Now, many of these countries are saying they want tomorrow today-they're interested in the very latest available technologies.

A second major trend is the rise of "born globals." Traditionally, there was a four-stage development to becoming global. Today, companies are saying from Day One they're interested in being international. And, of course, having an Internet-based business model facilitates this. I'd call those "mega-global" trends. They're going to affect all kinds of firms-not only the Davids but the Goliaths-from today's large manufacturing enterprises to tomorrow's dotcoms.

Ken and Daria Dolan

Hosts of The Dolans, a nationally syndicated personal-finance call-in radio show heard in nearly 200 markets across the United States and Canada

An overdue recession should start sometime in 2001, possibly during the second quarter. This will be the death knell for various dotcoms that have been burning through cash on hand with no earnings in sight.

Business inventories, which began rising in the summer of 2000, will continue to slow the profit picture for many of the "old economy" stocks. Consumers will continue to slow their purchasing of goods and services.

All of this should make the stock market very edgy and open up a window of better buying opportunities in selected stocks than we've seen in the past two years.

Smart investors, who have patiently waited on the sidelines with cash through most of 2000, will be rewarded for their patience.

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This article was originally published in the December 2000 print edition of Entrepreneur with the headline: Future Earnings.

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