Jeff Elgin: Buying a Franchise
When Is a Franchise Market Too Saturated?
Franchisees and franchisors have different ideas about market saturation.
By Jeff Elgin
| June 10, 2002
URL:
http://www.entrepreneur.com/franchises/buyingafranchise/franchisecolumnistjeffelgin/article52804.html
Q:
Many of the name brand franchises I've looked at appear to have
saturated the market. Isn't there some limit to the number of
outlets that these franchises can open in an area before they just
cannibalize their own sales? How do you determine if a franchise
has saturated the market and is no longer a good buy?
A:
This is a wonderful question that deals with one of the most
significant issues in franchising over the past 20 years. It all
comes down to the potential conflict between the franchisor's
philosophy in relation to market share goals and the
franchisees' desire to maximize the profitability of their
individual units.
Here's what this issue is all about: Say the total
investment in a theoretical franchise is $250,000 per unit and the
units average net income of 15 percent of gross sales. Now, suppose
you had a choice of developing a given market with one of the
following two scenarios:
- The market could hold 10 units that would each average $1
million of gross sales and $150,000 of net income. Therefore, the
total gross sales from the market would be $10 million, and the
total net income to franchisees would be $1.5 million. The total
amount franchisees invest to build the 10 units is $2.5 million, so
their average annual rate of return on investment is 60
percent.
- The market could hold 30 units that each average $667,000 of
gross sales and $100,000 of net income. Therefore the total gross
sales from the market would be $20 million, and the total net
income to franchisees would be $3 million. The total invested by
franchisees to build the 30 units is $7.5 million, so their average
annual rate of return on investment is 40 percent.
Which is the better approach? There really is no correct answer,
but you'll usually find franchisees prefer the first approach
and franchisors prefer the second. The reasons are straightforward
and reflect the self-interest of each party.
Franchisees usually prefer an approach that maximizes their rate
of return per unit. Strategy number one features less investment,
less management responsibility and a higher per-unit rate of
return. If you owned one of these units, you would almost certainly
like the numbers in the first example better.
Franchisors usually prefer an approach that maximizes market
share. Their only caveat typically is that the overall rate of
return to the franchisee needs to remain high enough so the
franchisor can attract the franchisees they need to open the units.
The fact is that, even though a 40 percent return is not as
appealing as a 60 percent return, it's still pretty
attractive.
The franchisor normally derives its ongoing income from royalty
fees paid by franchisees, usually expressed as a percentage of
gross sales. It's easy to see the franchisor will have twice as
much income under the second scenario. If I was the franchisor, I
would certainly prefer the second approach to the first.
Your question really gets to the heart of the issue: Where is
the appropriate balance between the somewhat conflicting economic
interests of the franchisee and the franchisor?
The real-world answer is that the franchisor gets to decide what
they believe is the best balance for their system. They define the
territory sizes and other factors that determine the density of
units they're willing to place in a market. These decisions by
the franchisor ultimately establish where the average individual
unit sales, income and rate of return numbers will fall.
You then get to decide if the balance that any given franchisor
has incorporated into their system is acceptable to you. If you
look at the average numbers, and they don't seem reasonable
from your perspective, walk away. If the average numbers are within
the standards you're looking for, then saturation is not an
issue for you with that franchise system. Either way, you get to
make the final call...just make sure you carefully research the
franchise so you know what these numbers are.
Jeff Elgin has almost 20 years of experience in franchising,
both as a franchisee and senior franchise company executive. He is
currently the CEO of FranChoice
Inc., a company that provides free consulting to consumers
looking for a franchise that best matches their needs. He can be
reached at jelgin@FranChoice.com.
The opinions expressed in this column are those
of the author, not of Entrepreneur.com. All answers are intended to
be general in nature, without regard to specific geographical areas
or circumstances, and should only be relied upon after consulting
an appropriate expert, such as an attorney or
accountant.
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