It may be a shiny new year, but it's full of the kind of uncertainty that makes business owners bite their nails. Will the economy get worse or maybe a little better? Will consumers keep spending? Or climb back into their shells?
In 2012, it will pay to keep an eye on a few key big-picture trends. Here are six that make my list for top insomnia producers:
- Winter sales slump? Retail research firm America's Research Group says January and February may be deathly slow, as more than 40 percent of consumers said they overspent on the holidays. That's a whole lot of holiday hangover. It will likely take creativity to book sales in the next 60 days.
- Ever-shifting markets. Consulting firm Phimation likens the 2012 small-business climate to the agrarian marketplace of the 1800s -- that is, highly fluctuating based on the seasons and unpredictable weather patterns. Similarly, innovation will continue to shift the markets around. To combat this unpredictability, be nimble and stay connected to your community, which going forward will be defined by interests rather than geography.
- Rising prices. The discount-deal site Dealnews tracked price changes in 2011, and predicts that airfare, digital cameras, hard drives, desktop computers and groceries will top the list of goods that will see spiking prices next year. That sounds like bad news for many small-business owners who need to keep up with the Joneses.
- Sluggish venture-capital markets. I'm still struggling to believe this, but 2011 was actually a worse year for IPOs than 2010, IPO-research firm Renaissance Capital reported. In 2011, 334 offerings took place, down 30 percent from 2010. That's not exactly encouraging for entrepreneurs looking for funding. Though, there are more IPOs already in the pipeline for 2012.
- The urge to merge. Consolidation will continue to sweep through the business world -- U.S. mergers and acquisitions announcements hit $821 billion (pdf) last year, the highest figure since 2007, M&A research firm Mergermarket said. Perhaps this is your chance to sell or maybe grow through acquisition?
- Election-year uncertainty. Often, an upcoming election creates inaction on Capitol Hill, as some lawmakers fear hurting their reelection chances. Others could battle to pass laws that might appease constituents. This 'policy uncertainty' may similarly stall business owners' decisions while they wait and wonder.
What business and economic trends worry you most? Leave a comment and tell us what's on your mind.
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Comments:
It is likely that the markets will show another loss year like 2007/2008. At a global level, there is just too much government debt out there and denial is leading they with respect to dealing with it. SME's should plan for the worst to ensure survival.
Social media is growing exponentially and facebook added over 200 million users in 2011. So for small businesses social media is a key element for their business model growing forward.
I remember approx. 3.5 years ago when President Obama took office and everything started to cave in all around us. I had a problem with how they put the mortgage crisis first and not jobs first. Simply put ,you can't afford to have a mortgage unless you have a job to pay your mortgage.The cart before the horse(hee-haw). The other query I have is ,if so many people lost so much in retirement accounts etc.,then who were the winners. Nobody ever talks about that.Their is so much corruption in every aspect of life today, it is no wonder nobody wants to believe in the system as it was intended to work. Hell in a hand basket. I do not want my kids to go through life thinking that way,, and it is unfortunate that it is that way in plain sight. America may not be dead but it sure seems like it is in a self induced deep coma. Will we ever have a government and a president that truly stands up for the people and says screw you to special interest thugs, middle east big oil companies and bring back jobs from abroad. It used to be "Wake up America"and now all it seems is "Knock knock, anyone there.I love this country, but it is disheartening to see the direction that it is heading.
As far as predictions directly related to PE activity, at Riveron Consulting our professionals predict a fairly dramatic acceleration in trends we have seen in 2011. Fund-to-fund activity, strategic acquisitions and acceleration of activity due to capital overhang are three trends we expect to dominate. PE funds trading with each other has been robust and we do not see that changing in the coming year. Many funds are nearing the end of their investment life cycle and will have to actively seek new investments to utilize expiring capital. Strategic buyers have a lot of cash on balance sheets, and those actively looking to grow may seek acquisition opportunities to accelerate anticipated organic growth. A trend related to PE and strategic buying activity that we expect to continue seeing in 2012 is that buyers will continue working harder to understand and narrow valuations as well as to identify prospective risks and opportunities underlying the acquisition. Sellers, too, will do much more work upfront to defend the valuations they claim. If 2012 shapes up to be a better forecast year than anyone thinks, by default we will see a lot of strategic activity, as the private equity activity has been baked into most forecasts. Riveron's perspective comes from our work as a financial consulting firm that provides buy-side due diligence for middle-market private equity and investment funds and also helps businesses prepare themselves for optimum valuation in certain circumstances, such as when they want to be acquired.
Hi Carol! Thanks for sharing these 6 business trends. Nice post.
well i same story i like to know if well get better banks no lender job down every bady looking for a coupon coupon don't make many i don't think 2012 if it is going to be much df than 2011
‘And the envelope please’ -- The answer is: technology (leading to higher PERMANENT unemployment) + globalization (our economies merged with theirs) = homogenization. Meaning, expect to work harder for less . . . just to survive. The good news is, with all these white boards around, our staff’s GOTTA come up with ‘a plan.’
It all goes back to knowing your market, offering and outstanding product/service that people want/need, providing the "above and beyond" expected customer service and putting a big dose of passion into your business. It may be different for the "big guys" this year, but for entrepreneurs....this is your year to shine.
The elections are certainly something to be a bit worried about. New leaders almost always come with new policies
Thank you for sharing Carol! We just started our business this year, and, even though the year prospects in our country are not that pink, we are optimistic and determined to succeed. May you all have a profitable 2012! :)
I'm in the field of social media marketing and one of my worries are technologies that can be gamed which will never give us real insights on how to measure success/roi. Still, I'm looking forward to this year with hope and optimism. Happy 2012 to all!
Will businesses find need of more employees or due to internet usage more and due to technology not need of more employees? So question is that will more people get job or employment growth decrease?
thx for share. i was considering to renew my logo in the start of new year. happy new year some people recommend logodesign。。。。net.CCCCOM/i/2012 does anyone ever heard about it
As businesses and governments look to the future, they would do well to remember that executing on their existing strategy may no longer be good enough. They must think more deeply about the opportunities and risks presented by the evolving trends, and the driving forces behind them.
Thanks for these 6, Carol. PC's going up in price? Really? That should bode well for retailers. Not. And, Happy New Year! :) The Franchise King®