Foreclosure risk index up, forecasting further increases

A new forecast predicts mortgage delinquencies will continue to rise over the next six to 12 months.

The Core Mortgage Risk Monitor, an index of foreclosure risk compiled by real estate data analysis firm First American CoreLogic, increased 16 percent from the same period last year.

CoreLogic analyzes house price trends, foreclosure rates, economic health factors and fraud propensity to predict the chances that future mortgage delinquencies will occur.

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The index, which has increased continually over the past year, is 47 percent higher than it was in the first quarter of 2002, when the last recession was winding down.

The Phoenix area had one of the lowest delinquency rates in 2007, but is considered riskier now. Still, it is not among the top 10 markets for delinquency risk. Of those, eight are in California and two are in Florida.