Giddiness and high times are now the story at all the companies
that make and sell "official" millennial gear.
From countdown clocks to "Last of the Millennium"
T-shirts, merchandise is flying off the shelves as consumers
prepare themselves to commemorate a truly unique event.
But in the midst of all the celebration, one ugly thought nags
business owners: "Who's going to want a
millennium-anything on January 2?" says Budd Goldman, 52,
owner of Countdown Clocks International in Mineola, New York.
"When this party is over, there will be a very empty feeling
among millennium merchandisers."
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It will happen in an instant. And in that heartbeat of a clock
tick, as the calendar page shifts from December 1999 to January
2000, millennial merchandisers will see their businesses evaporate
before their eyes. The scary fact is obsolescence is built into
millennium gear, and there's nothing sadder than a fad that has
had its day, says Michael R. Solomon, a professor of consumer
affairs at Auburn University in Auburn, Alabama. "On January
2, the trinkets and T-shirts will be old news."
Yeah, but isn't there hope for an encore, a repeat
"Enter the Millennium" celebration on December 31, 2000?
Merchandisers who think so know their calendars but have
nonetheless slipped into self-delusion. Yes, the technical fact is
the next millennium really doesn't start until January 1, 2001.
Holding tightly to that fact, some millennial merchandisers believe
the public will rally for a second celebration. But business
pragmatists know it's a sucker's bet.
Kenneth Walker of Walker Group/Designs, for instance, began
trademarking "01-01-00" as early as 1994. By 1997, he had
spent more than $500,000 on trademarks alone, but he owned the mark
in 30 countries. Then he set about licensing his mark to makers of
mugs, watches, caps, and even umbrellas, getting 01-01-00 products
into close to 10,000 stores, including biggies like
Bloomingdale's and J.C. Penney. Walker hit a home run--to the
tune of $60 million in fourth-quarter 1998 sales alone--but he has
no illusions about the future. "We project some first-quarter
[2000] sales in Asia, where calendars are different, and incidental
sales in Europe and the United States," says Walker.
"Then it will stop. We'd like to have it [carry over] into
the next millennium, but we're not fooling ourselves."
Might other millennial merchandisers with broader product hooks
fare better? Not likely. "Many people are bored by the
millennium already," says Audrey Guskey, a marketing professor
at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh.
Solomon agrees: "The millennium has been overexploited.
People are sick of it." Sure, the consuming public is
notoriously unpredictable, but face it, the odds of an encore
millennium are slim to none, and no merchandiser can count on a
second celebration to pump life into a dead business.
So what can millennial merchandisers do once the party's
over? We canvassed both entrepreneurs in the trenches and marketing
experts to get their strategies for building a long-term business
out of a single event and found there just may be opportunities
tomorrow. You're not a millennial merchandiser? Heads up
anyway--these strategies are ways to revive any sagging company or
slumping product line.
- Think millennium chic. One strategy is to broaden a
product's appeal, says futurist Gerald Celente, author of
Trends 2000 (Warner Books). "The millennium isn't
just a calendar change. It signifies something. The millennium
generation doesn't want a '57 Chevy. It wants products that
capture the next millennium's mind-set."
A T-shirt stamped 01-01-00 may be a dust rag by July 2000, but
other products won't become obsolete as fast if they reflect
new ways of thinking, Celente says. Make your product embody the
philosophical, intellectual and technological changes that will
define the 21st century.
Celente predicts that yesteryear's stuff will be swept out
in a rush of millennium consciousness. Of course, that's more
bad news for marketers of standard millennial gear because their
wares are inherently rooted in this millennium's
mind-set. But the product developers who can creatively rethink
what they're doing and build in aspects of "tomorrow"
have a good chance of hitting it big, predicts Celente.
- Diversify. One marketing canon states that living and
dying by a single product alone is risky business. "You're
doomed if you do. Every product has a life cycle; sooner or later,
it will die," says Thomas Schori, a principal with Millennium
Marketing Research, a Bloomington, Illinois, consulting firm.
But there is a remedy, says Guskey: Expand your idea and
your product.
That's easy to say, but John Locher is actually doing it. In
1996, Locher's company, Milestone Media, put up the Everything
2000 (http://www.everything2000.com)
Web site, which features information on and links to just about
everything pertaining to the millennium. Because Locher knows his
site has a limited life expectancy, he's leveraged the know-how
he's gained from launching Everything 2000 to put up
"Everything" sites for Christmas, Halloween and
Valentine's Day. "The millennium site has done well for
us, and it's helped us get the other sites up," says the
Seattle entrepreneur.
Rio Simon, the 32-year-old co-founder of Last of the Millennium,
a San Diego-based T-shirt manufacturer, is following much the same
strategy. He realizes that demand for T-shirts with a "Last of
the Millennium" imprint will be flatter than day-old champagne
come January 2000, but by then he says he'll be pushing a new
T-shirt line imprinted with "Club 2000." Even before
then, however, his company is staying busy putting out '99
T-shirts for several San Diego-area high school graduating classes;
'00 T-shirts for next year's classes may follow.
"These variations should keep us busy well into 2000,"
says Simon.
- Retool it. Some millennial merchandise can be easily
repurposed. At Countdown Clocks, for instance, Budd Goldman figures
a minor expenditure for new clock exteriors can transform his
millennial countdown clocks to timers that can count down
anything--graduation, retirement, a wedding, you name it. "My
chips can count down to any date," says Goldman, who claims
he's already sold 1.5 million Countdown Clocks at about $25
each. "When I created this business, I knew I wanted a life
after the millennium, and this product delivers it."
Similarly, Locher envisions revamping his Everything 2000 Web
site to position it as a "New Millennium" or
"2001" site. "The expenses involved will be minimal,
and we may find this site has a life span that will take it well
into the next millennium," says Locher.
More broadly, retooling is always an option when a product has
hit the wall. When the costs are minor, the payback just might be
big.
- Minimize inventory. When you can't cheaply revamp or
update merchandise, the only wise strategy is to get caught holding
as little as possible. "You can't be myopic about it.
Soon, nobody will want your merchandise," says Guskey, who
advises millennial merchandisers to move their inventories out as
fast as possible and to plan to end the year with an empty
warehouse.
That's a strategy shrewd marketers understand. Says Simon,
"We plan to have very little Last of the Millennium inventory
left by year-end."
- Throw it away. But the realistic fact is that millennial
merchandisers will be stuck with unsold inventory. What can they
do? Step one: Cut prices--and keep slashing until the merchandise
moves. There's no price that will entice buyers to buy? You may
be stuck; some merchandise will just be junk come January 2.
Don't delude yourself: There won't be a collectibles
market in millennium merchandise for many years. In fact, according
to Solomon, it probably won't exist until 2010 at the earliest.
Store some inventory if you have available space, but be ready for
a long wait.
Want a faster solution? Give the stuff away, and earn a tasty
tax break. "Sometimes the goods are worth more as donations to
charity," says David Yoho, a marketing consultant in
Louisville, Kentucky. Maybe on the street that T-shirt stamped
"New Year's Day, 2000" won't sell for $1 once the
Rose Bowl's first kickoff hits the air, but give that shirt to
charity, and you can usually claim a deduction equal to its cost,
possibly to its suggested retail price. (But check with a tax
professional before counting on this money.)
- Leverage your skills. Maybe the big gain out of having a
millennial business is that successfully marketing in that climate
provides the basis for many businesses to come. Simon, for example,
might never have been involved in event marketing if he hadn't
been struck with a millennial idea. Now he has plans--and the
know-how--to continue. The millennium may be over, but there will
be other hooks. Whether it's the Olympics, soccer's World
Cup or a visit from the Pope, says Guskey, "[People] now live
from event to event, and every event is a marketing opportunity.
Once you have an expertise at event marketing, you can leverage it
into new areas."
- Be a trend-spotter. "Most large businesses
don't look very far ahead," says Celente. "This is
where an entrepreneur can have a real advantage. And because an
entrepreneurial [business is smaller], it can also react swiftly.
More than ever, you need to stay future-oriented because the rate
of change is so fast."
Remember, Walker started trademarking "01-01-00" in
1994. Goldman began developing his countdown clocks in 1996. Simon
took out a trademark on "Last of the Millennium" in 1997.
The adage tells us about the success of the early birds, and
it's no different when marketing specialty products.
But there's another benefit enjoyed by savvy marketers:
"You don't have to follow trends; you can also create
them," says Greg Bustin, president of Bustin & Co., a
Dallas business-development firm. In many ways, the millennium
craze may just stand as a prime example of a marketing-driven
phenomenon. A flip of the calendar is no reason to buy clocks,
T-shirts, caps and more, but the early players helped create a
market, reaped rich rewards, and are now scouting for the next
opportunity. And so should you.
- Stay philosophical. "For every product that
succeeds, there are many failures before it," says Goldman. He
should know. He's hit it big with his clocks--overnight, he
built a multimillion-dollar business--but he also knows it could
have gone another way. Maybe somebody could have beaten him to the
punch, perhaps consumers might have yawned at his clocks, and for
those reasons, Goldman says about his triumph, "I feel
blessed."
A final bit of advice comes from Marc Polish, a Margate, New
Jersey, expert on novelty products and co-owner of Class of
'00, which merchandises T-shirts and hats imprinted with that
logo. "In this business, when you have an idea, you take your
shot and you just may hit a home run. But you never know," he
says. "You're making products people don't need, and
there's no saying where consumers' heads will be."
So ask yourself whether you're having fun in the millennium
industry, Polish advises. Ask whether you're treating people
right. "If you're treating people--shop owners, buyers and
consumers--right," he says, "they'll do business with
you again. And if you're having fun, you'll definitely want
to try it again. In this business, you just never know what will
happen. That's what makes it so exciting."
Contact Sources
Bustin & Co., (214) 720-3707, gregbustin@bustin.com
Class of '00, (609) 823-7661, sedonamax@aol.com
Countdown Clocks International, (516) 739- 7800, ext.
101, bgoldman@countdownclock.com
Last of the Millennium, (619) 216-1999, http://www.lastofthemillennium.com
Milestone Media Inc., (206) 621-0999;
Walker Group/Designs, (212) 683-2626, walker@010100.com