From California to the New York island, from the redwood forest
to the Gulf Stream waters, this land will change between now and
2005. More specifically, the consumers driving the American
economic engine will change--in some cases, drastically.
To measure these changes, we looked at demographic trends as
projected by the U.S. Census Bureau and state demographers for the
five most populous states: California, Texas, New York, Florida and
Illinois. What we found, first of all, is that there are going to
be a lot more consumers in the next millennium. The Census Bureau
projects the U.S. population will grow from 272 million in 1999 to
286 million in 2005.
Those consumers are generally going to be older, as the
still-dominant baby boom continues to move into middle age. Today,
35.5 is the estimated median age of Americans. By 2005, the median
age will be more than a year older, at 36.6.
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The 40- to 44-year-old group will become the largest, with 22.4
million, surpassing the 35- to 39-year-old population; 45- to
49-year-olds will become the next-largest group. In another age
shift, 20- to 24-year-olds will also grow to outnumber 35 to
39-year-olds, the demographic currently bloated by the youngest of
the Baby Boomers.
The United States is also becoming more racially diverse, as
minorities become majorities in some locales, and the influence of
ethnic groups everywhere grows. Non-Latino whites now make up 72.1
percent of Americans, but by 2005 they'll comprise only 69.9
percent of the total. Latinos of all races will grow from 11.2
percent to 12.6 percent of the population. Excluding Latinos,
African Americans will experience minimal growth, from 12.2 percent
to 12.4, and the American Indian population will rise slightly from
0.7 to 0.8 percent. The numbers of non-Latino Asian Americans and
Pacific Islanders, meanwhile, will explode by nearly 2.35 million,
growing from 3.8 percent to 4.4 percent of the total
population.
These will be nationwide changes that will affect every
entrepreneur who does business nationally (for instance, via the
Internet). How you're affected by the differences between
consumers now and in 2005, however, will primarily depend on where
you do business. Entrepreneurs who are operating in states like New
York and Illinois, which are experiencing slow growth, will be in a
much different situation from what entrepreneurs will face in the
fast-growing and dynamic markets to be found in California, Texas
and Florida.
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