You’re History
As history repeats itself, pick which role you want to play.
Has there ever been anything like the Internet? Actually, there
has, says Harvard Business School professor Debora L. Spar. In her
book Ruling the Waves (Harcourt), Spar points out that since
the development of improved navigational techniques more than 500
years ago led to the global explosion of ship-borne exploration and
trade, cycles of booms and busts based on technology have been
spurred by the invention of telegraphy, radio, TV and satellite
broadcasting, among others. 
In a lucid analysis, Spar shows how each cycle is split into
stages ruled by different types of participants. Pioneers begin
cycles. Pirates, attempting to profit from the new arena's raw
lawlessness, follow. In the last stage, policy-makers regulate and
control the technology. Opportunity exists in any stage, including
the rule-making era, in which the Internet now finds itself. During
this stage, Spar says, cyberspace will be brought to heel, and the
rewards-potentially greater than those divvied up by the first-wave
dotcommers-will be won by those shrewd enough to get a say in the
rule-making. In the near future, Spar sees the cycle exemplified in
emerging standards for disseminating recorded music over the Net.
The names MP3 and Napster, she suggests, may one day rank alongside
Columbus and Marconi. Into the Unknown Content Continues Below
 You can't escape business uncertainty. But you can learn
to deal with it, says McKinsey & Co. consultant Hugh Courtney
in 20/20 Foresight (Harvard Business School Press). Courtney
says uncertainty ranges in degree from being able to make a fairly
exact prediction to having no idea what might happen. For each
level, Courtney offers five questions to ask, beginning with
whether you should try to shape events or adapt yourself to them,
and ending with whether you need a new set of decision-making
processes to handle the situation. Tackling uncertainty is tough,
but Courtney brings his target down to earth with a solid
thump.
Austin, Texas, writer Mark Henricks has covered business and
technology for leading publications since 1981.
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