A trend spans more than one industry and touches more than one
market and generation, says Louis Patler, chairman of consulting
and market research firm Near Bridge Inc. in Mill Valley, California,
and author of TrendSmart: The Power of Knowing What's
Coming...and...What's Here to Stay. "Trends do not
exist in isolation," Patler says. "The entrepreneur who
wins is the one who sees how three or four of them dovetail
together." Consider the iPod, which draws on multiple trends,
ranging from our desire for more mobility, instant gratification
and customization to our craving for all things fashionable.
It's too late to catch a trend if you're reading about
it or seeing it at a trade show, says James Chung, president of
Reach
Advisors, a marketing strategy firm in Belmont, Massachusetts.
Start following lead indicators in similar industries for
what's bubbling up. "You have an advantage if you can
train yourself to look at adjacent industries," Chung says,
noting it wasn't until recently the ski industry realized its
trends follow those happening in surfing and skateboarding.
"That's why California ski resorts are a lot more ahead of
the trends than others," he says. "They've had a
chance to view the adjacent industries driving the trends within
theirs."
And don't forget your potential customer. Cutler and Krane
conducted focus groups early and built momentum based on what they
learned. "Keeping the momentum going after you spot a trend is
important," says Cutler, "because, if it's something
with staying power, chances are good there's someone else out
there who's thinking about it."
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Distinguishing between trends and fads requires quantitative and
qualitative analysis with a bit of gut instinct thrown in for good
measure. Janet Lee, 31, is founder of Petote, a 3-year-old
Chicago company that makes upscale pet carriers that look more like
fashionable purses. Company sales have increased from $120,000 in
2002 to projections of more than $1 million in 2004. Petote's
five designs-which retail from $100 to $600-are sold at more than
400 stores in the United States, including Hallmark, Henri Bendel,
Marshall Field's and Petco. Lee also touts a roster of
celebrity clients like Halle Berry, Jewel, Jessica Simpson and
Justin Timberlake.
But back in 2000, Lee-whose family owns a carrying-case
manufacturing business-was itching to create her own product line.
An animal lover, she spent a few months researching the pet-carrier
industry, visiting pet stores and Web sites for pet- and
travel-related gear to figure out what was on the market. She also
found statistics showing the market for small pets was growing
fast.
Lee had a gut instinct that there was a need for a stylish,
zippered pet carrier with a rigid, plastic lining inside to protect
a small pet. Her hunch was backed up by research. "There was
just a very plain, soft-sided bag that you could put your pet
in," Lee says. "I decided it would be great to develop a
pet carrier that's not only cute and functional, but [that]
people could use for a very long time."
She created some prototype bags and made sales calls to 20 pet
stores. Lee feels she hit the pet trend at the right time: Since
she started the company, Kate Spade has come out with a pet-carrier
line, and shoemaker Donald J. Pliner is marketing its own upscale
line of dog collars and leashes. The 25 employees at Petote are
staying a step ahead of the competition by extending the
company's product line into matching duffle and tote bags for
people and their pets' accessories. The company is also
developing a line of dog clothes and recently moved into a
30,000-square-foot facility. "Having a little dog and carrying
it around in a pet tote is the trendiest thing now," Lee says.
Her advice: Research every channel out there. That includes vetting
competitors as well as big and very small retail stores. "Know
everything about the product you're making," she says,
"what's out there, what's not available and what fits
into your creation."
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