The Senate Races: Democrats Make Gains

The U.S. Senate races are nearly as big a deal as the Presidential race, with the Democrats potentially poised to turn a slim majority into a much stronger one.

The Democratic Party will have a stronger majority over the next two years, thanks to big gains in the elections on Tuesday night.

The Democrats started the night with a 51-seat majority, with 49 Democrats and two Independents (Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut) who caucus with them. They ended the night with at least 56 of the 100 spots.

There are at least five big pickups for the Democrats: Mark Warner won the seat in Virgina, Kay Hagan defeated incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, Jeanne Shaheen bested incumbent Republican John Sununu in New Hampshire, Mark Udall beat Bob Shaffer in Colorado and Tom Udall won his race in New Mexico.

The Oregon race was still up for grabs early Wednesday morning, as was the Minnesota contest between Al Franken and incumbent Norm Coleman.

Kentucky and Georgia, which were remote possibilities for Democratic pickup, stayed Republican, with Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss, respectively, winning.

In all, 35 Senate seats were contested: 23 of them Republican, and 12 Democratic. 

Five Republican senators are retiring: Wayne Allard from Colorado, Larry Craig of Idaho, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and John Warner of Virginia. 

One big reason for the sea change: This Senate class was last running in 2002, when President George W. Bush was extremely popular, buoyed by national security issues. This time, the economy is the big issue, and Bush’s popularity is lower than that of any sitting President’s since Harry Truman in 1952.

In addition, strong momentum for Obama likely boosted some of the Democratic candidates.

Here’s a breakdown of the key Senate races:

Alaska – TOSS-UP (NOW REPUBLICAN)

Sen. Ted Stevens, often called the “Lion of the Senate,” is in a tight race with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich after Stevens was found guilty of seven counts of corruption. Stevens vowed to continue his re-election campaign, and there’s no rule barring convicted felons from serving in the Senate; but the conviction has made this race a tight one.

Colorado – TURNS DEMOCRATIC

Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Shaffer vied for Sen. Wayne Allard’s seat in a state that has been slowly trending Democratic since 2004. Udall had a comfortable lead in most statewide polls, and an organized Obama machine seemed to help him.

Georgia – STAYS REPUBLICAN

Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss polled with a slim lead over Democrat Jim Martin, and also is beating Libertarian Allen Buckley, in a three-way race. Here’s where it gets interesting -- Georgia requires a majority from any winner, and Chambliss didn't look like he was going to get it -- but he did. So no runoff was needed.

Kentucky – STAYS REPUBLICAN

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was ahead of Democrat Bruce Lunsford in the polls, but as then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle’s defeat in 2004 proved, leadership doesn’t always bring safety, and the race was closer than Republicans might have liked. Still, McConnell was able to win out in the end.

Minnesota – LIKELY TO STAY REPUBLICAN

Radio Host and former “Saturday Night Live” cast member Al Franken is polling just behind incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. But Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, who’s polling north of 10%, could complicate matters.

Historical note: Lest anyone think that no state would elect a comedian to high office, recall that Minnesota also elected Jesse Ventura, a former professional wrestler, as its governor in 1998.

Mississippi – STAYS REPUBLICAN

Former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove gave incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker a run for this money, though Wicker pulled it out in the end. Wicker was appointed by Republican Gov. Haley Barbour to fill the remainder of Trent Lott’s term after Lott resigned in 2007.

New Hampshire – TURNS DEMOCRATIC

Incumbent Sen. John Sununu lost to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, in a race that seems closely tied to the Presidential race. Sununu is a rising star for the GOP, but voters’ misgivings about the economy left him struggling to catch up to his opponent.

New Mexico – TURNS DEMOCRATIC

Democratic Rep. Tom Udall bested Republican Rep. Steve Pearce in a state that has been trending Democratic in recent years. Udall has come out in favor of domestic drilling, one of the few campaign issues where Republicans looked as though they could get traction.

North Carolina – TURNS DEMOCRATIC

Incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole was well behind Democrat Kay Hagan in most polls, after heavy targeting from the national Democratic Party and allegations that she spent very little time actually in the state. A negative ad run by Dole’s campaign about Hagan’s associations with an anti-religious group appeared to backfire after Hagan ran an ad citing her Sunday School-teacher history, and helped propel Hagan to victory.

Oregon – LIKELY TO TURN DEMOCRATIC

Incumbent Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is trailing Democrat Jeff Merkley, who is currently the state’s Speaker of the House, in a state that has been trending Democratic in recent years. Smith has opposed the GOP on some issues (he said in 2006 that he decided to oppose the war in Iraq), but the Democratic move in the state might be too much for him to overcome.

Virginia – TURNS DEMOCRATIC

Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner bested former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore in the race to fill retiring Republican John Warner’s seat. The Democratic trends in Northern Virginia, coupled with strong black turnout for Obama, helped lock this up for Warner.

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