Views of community sustainability after a mine closure: a case study of Manitouwadge, Ontario.

Given the stronger attachment to Manitouwadge displayed by the pre-Hemlo group, the question arises whether this attachment translates into a more favourable view of the town's recent performance and a more optimistic outlook for the long term future of the community as it adjusts to the closure of the Geco mine. To assess recent performance, residents were asked if they had noticed any change in local shopping and recreational opportunities and in the provision of medical and municipal services over the previous three years. As Table 2 shows, change in these measures was perceived by fewer than half of the respondents, indicating that, for many, a degree of stability had existed in the years immediately following the closure. Those who did notice change most often saw it in shopping opportunities and medical services. As well, post-Hemlo respondents appear to have had a greater sense of change than pre-Hemlo respondents in two of the four areas listed, both of which were statistically significant. If respondents indicated they had noticed change, they were asked to provide examples and these were then classified as positive, negative or both positive and negative. Change was much more frequently perceived as negative by both groups.

Although most residents perceived short term change to have been minimal, their outlook for the long term was much less optimistic (Table 3). Strong majorities within both groups foresaw higher taxes, fewer municipal services, and a decrease in mining jobs. A significantly greater proportion of the post-Hemlo group, however, did foresee decreases in population, fewer retail stores, reduced employment opportunities in the government sector, and fewer opportunities for young people graduating from school as part of the town's future. Post-Hemlo respondents also were more likely to believe that fewer people would be deciding to retire in the town. Overall, Table 3 shows the pre-Hemlo group to be less pessimistic than the post-Hemlo group.

Views on Quality of Life

Residents were asked to describe what they believed to be both the advantages and disadvantages of living in Manitouwadge. Overall, the pre and post-Hemlo groups shared similar views about the town. Manitouwadge's friendly, unpolluted, small town environment and excellent access to outdoor recreation opportunities were advantages cited frequently by both groups but more often by the longer term residents (Table 4a). The most common disadvantages cited were geographical isolation, poor shopping opportunities, and poor access to medical care (Table 4b). The more frequent mentioning of poor access to medical care by the pre-Hemlo group is most likely related to this group's higher average age and hence, its more frequent need to access such service.

Residents were also asked to rate, using a five point Likert scale, the quality of life they experience in Manitouwadge. As Table 4c indicates, despite the community's isolation and perceived limited provision of medical and retail services, most residents are satisfied with the quality of life the town offers. The degree of satisfaction is moderately higher amongst pre-Hemlo respondents and the degree of dissatisfaction somewhat higher amongst post-Hemlo respondents, but these are not statistically significant differences.

Community Sustainability and Intentions to Stay

Residents were asked if they were optimistic or pessimistic about Manitouwadge's chances of surviving as a viable community and whether the opinion currently held differed from what they thought at the time of the Geco closure in 1995 (Table 5). Overall those who have remained optimistic outnumber those who have remained pessimistic by almost three to one. Those whose pessimism has lessened roughly equals those whose optimism has lessened. When disaggregated into pre and post-Hemlo groups, the longer term residents again appear more optimistic. Despite the negative economic consequences of the mine closure, nearly half of the pre-Hemlo group remain as optimistic about the town's future as they did when the mine closed compared with only 31 percent of the post-Hemlo group.

The extent to which opinions held about the future viability of the town correlate with the retirement intentions of respondents provides perhaps the best indication of the greater attachment felt towards Manitouwadge by the pre-Hemlo group. This is particularly evident with the Pre-Hemlo residents who were as optimistic at the time of the survey as they were when Geco closed. These people were five times as likely as the similarly optimistic residents in the post-Hemlo group to state that they intend to retire in Manitouwadge. An equally striking difference was found among those who have remained pessimistic about the town's future. Just over 20 percent of the pessimists in the pre-Hemlo group still intend to retire in Manitouwadge as compared to only three percent in the post-Hemlo group.

These differences appear to reflect a general attachment to Manitouwadge that is characteristic of the pre-Hemlo respondents whether they are optimistic or pessimistic. About 40 percent of the pre-Hemlo group as a whole indicated that they had once moved away from Manitouwadge either to attend school or seek employment but later returned to the town. This ongoing desire to make Manitouwadge home also is evident in that about three-quarters of the pre-Hemlo group indicated that they had no intention of leaving the town within the next five years and just over 40 percent stated that they had plans to retire in Manitouwadge. Indeed, given that 11 percent of the pre-Hemlo respondents are 65 or older, some have already made Manitouwadge their retirement home. In contrast, over one half of the post-Hemlo group anticipates leaving the community within the next five years and only six percent see themselves retiring in the community.

Finally, although proclivity to remain in the community is correlated with age, within any given age cohort, intentions to retire in Manitouwadge are significantly stronger in the pre-Hemlo group. In the 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 age cohorts, pre-Hemlo residents are respectively three, eight and five times as likely to want to retire in Manitouwadge than are those in the post-Hemlo group.

Interpretation

The findings support the assertion that residents more strongly attached to the community are more likely to play a role in insuring the long term persistence of that community by making the decision, not only to remain in the community in the short run, but also to retire in place. Long term residents are reasonably satisfied with the quality of life offered in Manitouwadge but they are still not particularly enamoured with their geographical isolation and the low level of services available to them and they do have some concerns about negative changes they have noted since the closure of Geco. One possible reason for overlooking such irritants is the high level of income enjoyed by most Manitouwadge households. According to Statistics Canada, males earn about 1.5 times and families 1.2 times the provincial average income. Another possible reason is the familiarity most respondents have with living in a remote location and what that entails in terms of advantages and disadvantages. But high incomes and resource town experience are not the strict purview of the pre-Hemlo group. More recent in-migrants earn similar incomes and have similar resource town living experience. Excluding those born in Manitouwadge, nearly 70 percent of the respondents indicated that they had previously lived in a community dependent upon either the forestry or mining sector. Consistently, the pre-Hemlo group is more optimistic about Manitouwadge's long term viability and more frequently view themselves as being a part of the town's future. Why is this the case?

An answer to this question is beyond the scope of the data collected in this research, but a speculative assessment is possible. One possible explanation lies with the fact that many pre-Hemlo households have lived in Manitouwadge long enough to have personally experienced the rhythms of a resource dependent economy that has been favoured with some stability. Having previously seen Manitouwadge survive a closure crisis, they may be less perturbed by the most recent one and the one that lies on the horizon when the Hemlo gold fields are depleted. They have also been in the town long enough to witness some reinvestment take place in community infrastructure. Commitments such as the construction of a new high school, hospital and municipal hall provide long term residents with testimony to the town's resilience and hope for its survival. Their attachment, combined with an apparent acceptance of ongoing change, may provide them with an outlook that favours adaptability and persistence.