ONE SMALL STEP FOR NIGERIA.

In mid-December 2004 Nigeria took a significant step forward on its long road to economic stability. The World Bank announced an International Development Association credit of US$140-million to support the Federal Government of Nigeria in its efforts to strengthen governance, accountability, reduce corruption, and improve "basic service delivery to the population".

It's hard to underestimate the importance of Nigeria in terms of its potential in the global economy. Nigeria is the second largest economy in Africa after South Africa (GDP US$40-billion, 2004 growth 7.1 percent).

Nigeria, with a population of just over 137-million is the most populous African country. Egypt, with 73-million is a distant second. In fact, Nigeria is among the top 10 most populated countries in the world (at number 9) and by 2050 will knock Brazil out of the number 5 spot. So the question is: How long before Nigeria's consumers benefit from any stability created by reform? And what would the benefit be?

In April of 1998, U. N. Secretary General Kofi Annan addressed the Security Council as he presented a report on a development strategy for Africa. In his address he said, "Where the international community is committed to making a difference, it has proven that significant and rapid transformation can be achieved."

At this writing, Nigeria has pockets of what might be described as genuine consumer activity people with enough discretionary income to make purchases from a retail infrastructure offering thousands of realistic choices in non-durable and durable categories.

The benefits of stability, good governance, well managed macroeconomic fundamentals, would be to extend these pockets to 80 percent of the population. Using generally accepted estimating techniques, with the caveat that basic security can be maintained, we estimate that this could be achieved in 15 to 16 years enough time for visionary marketers to begin a planning/execution strategy.

NIGERIA HAS THE DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE TO FULFILL ITS POTENTIA

The population growth rate for Nigeria is above the continent's average, due in part to a birth rate of 42 per thousand inhabitants, which is above the average of 38 per thousand for Africa. Job creation has kept up with growth of the labor force in recent years, and it is likely that the situation will improve somewhat in 2005. Unemployment is running about 2.7 percent, and this continues to inspire consumer confidence in urban areas.

Nigerias population reached 137- million people mid-2004, which amounted to ust over 15 percent of the whole of Africas 885-million inhabitants. According to data released by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), Nigerias population will reach 206-million 2025. Also, according to that source, Nigeria is going to have a population of 307-million people in 2050. The PRB revealed that a low 36 percent of Nigerias population lived in urban areas during 2004, and that the countrys population density is a comparatively high 385 people per square mile. Another source of demographic data, the CIAs World Factbook, indicates that 43 percent of Nigerias population was birth14 years old in 2004, while 54 percent was 1564 years old, and 3 percent of the populace was 65 years of age and over.

CIA statistics revealed that the countrys population growth rate was 2.45 percent in 2004 and the net migration rate was 0.26 per 1000.

According to the United Nations Population Division, in the year 2050, 25 percent of Nigerias population will be birth14 years old, while 65 percent will be aged 1559, and 10 percent of the populace will be 60 years of age and over.