TAIWAN'S 'ASIAN TIGER' REPUTATION UPHELD.

The Taiwan-China dispute is in the news again with what they used to call "sabre rattling". And the international press, along with not a few politicians, appear worried that the swelling of the current magma may lead to an eruption.

The economic situation says different. Almost exactly a year ago, Orville Schell, a University of California, Berkely, dean, and distinguished historian of China, pointed out in an article in the Taipei Times that there are 1-million Taiwanese living in mainland China working in 50,000 companies in which Taiwan has invested something like US$400-billion.

Independence referenda in Taiwan, 500 missles aimed at Taiwan from the mainland aside, the rhetoric and the threats on both sides appear to be a concession to hardliners. In fact, the Associated Press wire ran a story on February 24 with Taiwan's president saying he wouldn't rule out unification with China.

Added to this is the fact that Taiwan's consumers are doing relatively well. Surprisingly, there are favorable compaisons between Taiwan and the Netherlands. For instance, there's a rough equivalence in size and population: Taiwan at 14,000 sq. mi., and a population of 22-million, The Netherlands at 16,000 sq. mi., and 16-million. Their economies are relatively close as well: Taiwan's GDP for 2003 (CIA, World Factbook) was US$529-billion, The Netherlands,US$461-billion. Taiwan's PPP per capita: US$23,400, The Netherlands, $28,600.

One doesn't necessarily think of Taiwan and The Netherlands in the same league economically, but they're not that far apart. The standard of living in The Netherlands is higher, but Taiwan's economy appears to be larger and growing faster.

Thought about in this way might indicate a more sophisticated consumer market in Taiwan than one might ordinarily perceive.

In February 2005, Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development reported that domestic forecasters were on average slightly higher in their exepctations for GDP growth (4.4 percent) than the international establishment (4.1 percent). Private consumption is forecast to grow more moderately ending the year at 3.1 percent. Inflation is quite low, ending 2004 at 1.1 percent. Interest rates were also low ending 2004 at 1.15 percent. And the Government's target unemployment for 2005 is 4.0 percent.

TAIWAN'S DEMOGRAPHICS RESEMBLE THOSE OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The population growth rate for Taiwan is slightly lower than the regional average, due in part to a birth rate of 10 per thousand inhabitants, which is below the average of 12 per thousand for East Asia. Job creation hasn't quite kept up with growth of the labor force in recent years, and it is likely that the situation will improve further in 2005. Unemployment is running about 4.0 percent, which is certainly comparable to many developed nations (U. S. 5.4 percent February 2005). Taiwans population reached 22 million people mid-2004. There is no regional comparison since China is also in East Asia and its huge population would distort the match. The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) says Taiwans population will reach 24-million by 2025. Then, according to that source, it will contract to 22-million people again in 2050. The PRB revealed that a substantial 78 percent of Taiwans population lived in urban areas during 2004, and that the countrys population density is a very high 1,621 people per square mile. Another source of demographic data, the CIAs World Factbook, indicates that 20 percent of Taiwans population was birth14 years old in 2004, while 71 percent was 1564 years old, and 9 percent of the populace was 65 years of age and over.

CIA statistics revealed that the countrys population growth rate was 0.64 percent in 2004 and the net migration rate was zero. Market: Asia Pacific normally reports the age structure of a country's population in 2050 using United Nations (UN) statistics. In the case of Taiwan, however, the UN does not project population statistics separately for the country.