Democracy compromised: impeachment of mayor threatens political evolution.

April 7, 2005, was a black day for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Political analysts saw it as an historical moment, a date that will serve as a watershed in the long political process that Mexico is undergoing.

President Fox declared it an example of constitutional legitimacy. Carlos Fuentes, one of Mexico's pre-eminent men of letters, said, "this day has freed us from democracy." This is but a small example of how polarized Mexico is as a result of the Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador case. And the decision by federal congressmen to impeach the Mexico City mayor raises the risk of social unrest.

The federal government, the PAN and the PRI argued that this decision reinforced the rule of law, demonstrating that no one is above the law. However, for a large portion of society and international public opinion, it was nothing more than a political attack designed to remove the top candidate from the 2006 presidential race.

While the impeachment process moved toward its ultimate climax, the mayor had taken positive steps to solidify his spot as the presidential frontrunner. In mid-March, Leonel Cota Montano--a Lopez Obrador favorite and former governor of Baja California Sur--was elected as PRD national party president. This would be key for the mayor during the PRD primary campaign. And even outside his party, Lopez Obrador maintained a significant advantage against his most likely rivals in the race for Los Pinos.

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According to a March poll by Parametria, when linking the candidate with his party Lopez Obrador-PRD earned a solid 40 percent approval rating nationwide. Meanwhile, Roberto Madrazo-PRI garnered only 30 percent and Santiago Creel-PAN was another four points behind.

Thus it is easy to see why supporters and independent observers criticized the impeachment of Lopez Obrador. Not only is the frontrunner facing exclusion from the presidential election, but a priori the 2006 electoral process has lost its legitimacy.

In an April 6 editorial, the Washington Post wrote: "(T)he way to stop this popular politician is not to force him off the ballot through a legal trick .... The case against the mayor is trivial ... If Mr. Lopez Obrador is unable to compete for the presidency, then the landmark achievement of 2000, when Mr. Fox became the first opposition candidate to win a presidential election, will be tainted. Mexico will return to the era when it was ruled by fraud and force; the next president will be discredited at home and abroad."

Suspicion Prevails

Even if you aren't in agreement with Lopez Obrador's method of governing, it is impossible to agree with the use of political "dirty tricks" against the mayor, against the PRD and against the consolidation of the nation's democracy.

To see the impeachment as a "dirty trick," one only need examine the selective application of the law. Why weren't Senator Ricardo Aldana and Deputy Carlos Romero (both top officials in the Pemex union) impeached for their roles in the Pemexgate scandal?

Why was alleged drug cartel spy Nahum Acosta--the former head of President Fox's travel office--released from prison? Was it because of Acosta's friendship with recently elected PAN national party president Manuel Espino? Or was it because, as Espino asserts, there were political motives designed to hurt his candidacy behind the PGR investigation in the first place?

This charge, coming from the leader of the president's own party, begs the question: Might there be political motives behind the charges that led to Lopez Obrador's impeachment?

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Doubt is rampant and mistrust of authority is growing. Now the judicial branch must decide if the charges are meritorious and, if so, they will issue an arrest warrant for Lopez Obrador. No matter what the decision, suspicion remains and this is the high cost Mexico's democracy must pay before reaching maturity.

A shadow of uncertainty now hangs over next year's federal elections. It seems evident that underhand political machinations are in motion to exclude the people's favorite--and his alternative policy proposals--from the ballot. In effect, a large segment of the population is being disenfranchised.

Despite the risks his radicalism seems to create, Lopez Obrador has undeniably acted prudently and responsibly. Prior to the impeachment vote, the mayor convened a rally in the Zocalo and called for peaceful social resistance. His speech calmed the roiling financial markets and prevented confrontations between authorities and demonstrators. Three days later, Finance Secretary Francisco Gil Diaz, praised Lopez Obrador's actions as "mature" and lauded the PRD for choosing to demonstrate peacefully.

Even so, the ongoing confrontation will only limit space for tolerance and responsible actions. It is critical that the political class finds a way to compromise to keep democracy on track.

For now, Lopez Obrador and the PRD are targeting the July 3 State of Mexico elections to demonstrate that they are a viable political option. The proximity to Mexico City and the active support the mayor has been giving to the PRD's gubernatorial candidate, Yeidckol Polevnsky, means the PRD must win a sizeable portion of the vote to boost its prospects for 2006. If it fails to challenge the PRI and doesn't increase its electoral presence in the State of Mexico, Lopez Obrador can kiss his chances goodbye.

Joel Estudillo Rendon is a member of the board of the Instituto Mexicano de Estudios Politicos.