Divisions stymie Bolivia's progress.

On the surface, Bolivia's macroeconomic statistics tell a moderately favorable story. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting that the country's GDP will grow 4.5 percent in 2005. In the mid-1990s, inflation got out of control and annual changes in the rate of inflation got into double digits.

Bolivia fell victim to the general global slowdown starting in 1999 when Bolivia's economy grew only 0.4 percent. Key analyses of the country's economy agree that a large part of the reason for Bolivia's vulnerability to the vagaries of global growth, or lack of it, is because Bolivia is almost exclusively dependent on commodities for export income.

The economy slowly revived starting in 2002 with growth of 2.8 percent and in 2004 posted an increase of 3.8 percent.

In the IMF's latest review of Bolivia's economy the assessment of progress toward the IMF's social and economic goals was said to be generally positive. The IMF's staff did note that social tension and regional divisions were expected to impede progress. However, the general tone of this part of the review was in contrast to news reports coming out of Bolivia reporting on deep divisions about the country's progress.

In its "Country Profile" on Bolivia, the British Broadcasting Company (BBC) characterizes the country's status in terms of geographic isolation and social rifts. Among the supporting facts the BBC offers are: Bolivia is landlocked; it's the country with the highest elevation in South America; it has the biggest population of indigenous people in South America (approximately two-thirds of the population), and it is one of the poorest countries in South America. The IMF estimates per capita income at US$2,926 for 2005.

Economically, the population is divided among a small elite descended from the first Spanish conquerors who live in the cities, and poor farmers and subsistence workers. The disparity in distribution of wealth is one of the most extreme in the world. As a result, national unity is an elusive ideal, and conflict erupts around issues that are settled elsewhere through political processes.

The country's progress toward a viable consumer-based economy is currently threatened by deep divisions over control of Bolivia's natural gas reserves.

YOUNG CONSUMERS AND A FAIRLY STABLE JOB MARKET BODE WELL

The population growth rate for Bolivia is above the regional average, due in part to a birth rate of 28 per thousand inhabitants, which is above the average of 21 per thousand for South America. Job creation has not kept up with growth of the labor force in recent years, and it is likely that the situation will deteriorate further in 2005. Unemployment is running about 9.2 percent, in urban areas and underemployment is widespread.

Bolivia's population reached 9-million people mid-2004, which amounted to approximately 2.5 percent of South America's 365-million inhabitants. According to data released by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), Bolivia's population will reach 12-million 2025. Also, according to that source, Bolivia is going to have a population of 15-million people in 2050.

The PRB revealed that a substantial 63 percent of Bolivia's population lived in urban areas during 2004, and that the country's population density is a low 21 people per square mile. Bolivia is almost exactly twice the size of France in area, but the population of Bolivia is only 15 percent of the size of France's population. Another source of demographic data, the CIA's World Factbook, indicates that 35 percent of Bolivia's population was birth to 14 years old in 2004, while 60 percent was 15 to 64 years old, and 5 percent of the populace was 65 years of age and over.

CIA statistics revealed that the country's population growth rate was 1.49 percent in 2004 and the net migration rate was -1.27 per thousand.

According to the United Nations Population Division, in the year 2050, 22 percent of Bolivia's population will be birth to 14 years old, while 62 percent will be aged 15 to 59, and 16 percent of the populace will be 60 years of age and over.