Taiwan's ambitious goals for 2015.

Taiwan has set a number of ambitious goals for itself to be achieved by 2015. Social goals and industrial development are at the heart of its planning. The planning, announced on January 4, 2007 by Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) include six overall targets. A brief evaluation of five of them follows.

The government is proposing to narrow the gap between rich and poor. The CEPD specifies five income segments for the country's consumer base and wants to reduce the difference between the top quintile and the bottom quintile to a factor of six.

A second target is to maintain GDP growth at an average rate of 5.0 percent between 2007 and 2015. How realistic is this? Using International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics, a calculation of the average GDP growth of Taiwan for the ten years from 1998 through IMF estimates for 2007 GDP growth (4.2 percent) puts the average growth rate at 3.98 percent. It does not appear feasible that the 5.0 percent goal can be achieved.

A third CEPD target through 2015 is to keep Taiwan's unemployment rate below 4.0 percent per year. With a concerted effort, this goal might be met. The IMF says that unemployment for 2007 is likely to come in at 3.7 percent. Unemployment has been declining steadily since 2002.

The CEPD is also planning to stimulate per capita income. Taiwan already has one of the highest GDP PPP per capita incomes in the region, so this target is likely to be met.

Inflation is another concern with the CEPD's target at an average below 2.0 percent through 2015. According to the IMF, the rate of inflation has grown modestly every year since 1997, so this goal should be easily met.