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(1) In our sample, questions regarding individual labor supply,
including migration, were answered by the individual themselves 75.3% of
the time in 1997-8. When the individual themselves could not be
interviewed, the household head provided responses.
(2) Both rounds of the VLSS took place over the course of a
calendar year. To avoid labeling confusion, we use the year 1993 to
refer to the 1992-3 survey and 1998 to refer to the 1997-8 survey.
(3) In 1998, the exchange rate was approximately 13,900 Vietnamese
dong to US$1.
(4) We choose to analyze seasonal rather than long-term migration
for pragmatic reasons; the survey explicitly asked household members
about migration over the past twelve months, where household members
were defined generally as individuals who normally live and eat their
meals in this household (World Bank 2001). To include more permanent
migrants in our definition, we would have had to infer additional
information about individuals who were not considered household members
by the survey protocol. Since we cannot discern whether migrants who
were away from the household at the time of the survey will return, we
may include some permanent migrants as seasonal migrants in our
definition.
(5) We omit children under age five from the demographic profile
because we are concerned about the endogeneity of fertility. This is
consistent with our theory, as children that young do not work.
(6) Descriptive statistics for the included variables in 1993 and
1998 in Appendix table A1.
(7) As suggested by Hahn and Hausman (2002), we re-estimated the
reverse of our model, using migration as the dependent variable and
expenditure growth as the endogenous explanatory variable. They show
that if instruments are strong, the coefficient a estimated by reverse
two-stage least squares should be equal to the inverse of coefficient
[beta] in equation (2). We performed the Hahn-Hausman test on our main
specification (table 4) and could not reject the hypothesis that the
estimate & was identical to the inverse of [??] for all IV
specifications, confirming the findings from our F-tests that the
instruments are strong.
(8) The land variable and value of productive assets variable proxy
for the household's physical capital. We further experimented with
more detailed variables describing land holdings and productive assets,
and found that the estimated coefficients on the additional variables
were never statistically different from zero. Therefore, here we use a
parsimonious specification.
(9) Several authors have recently suggested using asset-based
measures of poverty that do not share all of the flaws listed above
(McKenzie 2005; Carter and Barrett 2006). Since the relationship between
assets and expenditures is not straightforward and our primary focus is
on explaining growth in expenditures, we perform our poverty analysis
using expenditure-based measures.
Alan de Brauw is research fellow, International Food Policy
Research Institute, Washington DC, and assistant professor, Department
of Economics, Williams College, Williamstown, MA. Tomoko Harigaya is
research assistant, Innovation for Poverty Action, New Haven, CT. Senior
authorship is shared.
Table 1. Selected Characteristics of Migrant Households, VLSS,
1992-1993 and 1997-1998
1992-3 1997-8
Number of migrant households 65 369
Median per capita expenditures, 1992-3 1,264 1,437
Median expenditure growth rate 7.3 5.9
Commune geography (proportion of households
with migrants)
Coastal 5.3% 21.3%
Inland delta 2.1% 11.2%
Hills/Midlands 0.5% 24.2%
Low mountains 1.3% 5.6%
High mountains 0.2% 2.4%
Note: All descriptive statistics are conditional on migration
occurring.
Table 2. Characteristics of Individuals and Households in
Rural Vietnam, by Migration Status, VLSS
Panel A: Demographic Characteristics of Individuals in Rural
Vietnam, by Migration Status
Migrants Nonmigrants
Proportion male 0.705 0.453
(0.456) (0.498)
Age 29.90 38.40
(11.9) (18.0)
Years of education 6.81 5.87
(3.21) (3.65)
Skill training? (1 = yes) 0.103 0.050
(0.304) (0.218)
Married? (1 = yes) 0.488 0.620
(0.500) (0.485)
Number of observations 486 10,360
Panel B: Differences between Migrant and Nonmigrant
Households, Vietnam
Migrant
HHs Other HHs
Mean per capita expenditures, 1993 1,693 1,736
(1,155) (976)
Proportion below poverty line, 1993 0.63 0.56
(0.48) (0.50)
Mean expenditure growth rate 6.3% 5.7%
(9.0%)
Age of household head, 1993 44.2 45.2
(13.1) (14.9)
Years of education, household head 6.39 5.50
(3.76) (3.91)
Household size 5.38 5.00
(1.94) (2.14)
Number of observations 353 3,139
Note: Standard deviations are in parentheses. Households characterized
as "migrant households" are defined as those that increased their
participation in migration between 1993 and 1998.
Table 3. Effects of Observable Commune Variables on
Instrument Candidates
Share of Share of
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