Seasonal migration and improving living standards in Vietnam.

Village, Village, Bornin

Migrants Hanoi or HCMC Dependent Variable in 1993 before 1975 Average education level 0.035 -0.162

(0.446) (0.343) Log, commune population 1.612 -0.451

(1.155) (0.888) Public transport available? (1 = yes) 0.236 1.002

(1.185) (0.911) Distance to paved road (km) -0.154 -0.048

(0.152) (0.117) Electricity in commune? (1 = yes) -0.544 1.849

(1.348) (1.036) Factory present in 1989? (1 = yes) 1.145 0.715

(1.228) (0.944) Log, average expenditures, 1993 1.065 0.566

(2.619) (2.013) Total land, commune, 1993 -0.307 -0.148

(hectares) (0.238) (0.183) Share of land, high quality 0.016 0.012

(0.023) (0.018) Secondary school present in -0.466 0.282

commune (1 = yes) (1.068) (0.821) Commune in majority kinh (1 = yes) -0.959 0.74

(2.144) (1.649) Distance to Hanoi (km/100) 0.718 -1.139

(0.683) (0.525) Distance to HCMC (km/100) 0.442 -1.658

(0.796) (0.612) Regional dummies yes yes Number of observations 117 117 F statistic, excluding distance to 0.73 0.98

Hanoi/HCMC p-value 0.7111 0.4708 F statistic, including distance to 0.69 1.93

Hanoi/HCMC p-value 0.7678 0.036 Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses. The F statistics test the hypothesis that estimated coefficients are jointly zero. The dependent variables in these regressions are percentages, whereas we use proportions in other regressions, to amplify the magnitude of these coefficients. Table 4. Regressions Explaining Effect of Migration on Household Per Capita Expenditure Growth, Vietnam, 1993-1998 Model (0) (1) (2)

OLS IV IV Number of migrants, household 0.004 0.063 0.053

(0.004) (0.026) (0.024) Changes in household

demographics Number of women,

aged fifty-five and over -0.018 -0.019 -0.018

(0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Number of men, aged sixty and -0.009 -0.011 -0.011

over (0.005) (0.004) (0.004) Number of women, aged eighteen -0.018 -0.019 -0.019

to fifty-four (0.002) (0.003) (0.002) Number of men, aged eighteen to -0.004 -0.007 -0.007

fifty-nine (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) Number of children, aged six to -0.007 -0.006 -0.006

seventeen (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Household characteristics, 1993 Gender of head (1 = male) Years of schooling,

household head Age of household head Age of head, squared Total land holdings, 1993 (hectares) Log value of productive Assets, 1993 Commune characteristics, 1993 Distance to road (km) -0.001

(0.001) Log, commune population -0.003

(0.007) Total land, commune -0.003

(heactare) (0.002) Electricity in commune 0.004 (1 = yes) (0.007) Average education level, commune -0.0004

(0.003) Distance to Hanoi (km/100) -0.003

(0.004) Distance to HCMC (km/100) -0.002

(0.005) Number of observations 3,492 3,492 3,462 Hansen J statistic 0.0016 0.4168 Hansen J statistic, p-value 0.9684 0.5185 Hahn-Hausman test (t-statistic) -0.068 -0.879 F statistic, instruments 7.7 9.42 p-value, F statistic 0.0007 0.0002 [R.sup.2] or centered [R.sup.2] 0.0823 -0.0205 0.0169 Model (3) (4)

IV IV Number of migrants, household 0.052 0.052

(0.024) (0.024) Changes in household

demographics Number of women,

aged fifty-five and over -0.019 -0.019

(0.004) (0.004) Number of men, aged sixty and -0.012 -0.012

over (0.004) (0.004) Number of women, aged eighteen -0.019 -0.019

to fifty-four (0.003) (0.003) Number of men, aged eighteen to -0.007 -0.007

fifty-nine (0.003) (0.003) Number of children, aged six to -0.006 -0.006

seventeen (0.002) (0.001) Household characteristics, 1993 Gender of head (1 = male) -0.002 -0.002

(0.004) (0.004) Years of schooling, 0.001 0.001

household head (0.001) (0.001) Age of household head 0.001 0.001

(0.001) (0.001) Age of head, squared -0.001 -0.001

(0.001) (0.001) Total land holdings, 1993 0.004 (hectares) (0.003) Log value of productive 0.0002 Assets, 1993 (0.002) Commune characteristics, 1993 Distance to road (km) -0.001 -0.001

(0.001) (0.001) Log, commune population -0.003 -0.003

(0.007) (0.007) Total land, commune -0.003 -0.003

(heactare) (0.002) (0.002) Electricity in commune 0.004 0.004 (1 = yes) (0.007) (0.007) Average education level, commune -0.002 -0.002

(0.003) (0.003) Distance to Hanoi (km/100) -0.003 -0.003

(0.004) (0.004) Distance to HCMC (km/100) -0.002 -0.002

(0.005) (0.005) Number of observations 3,462 3,462 Hansen J statistic 0.3728 0.3768 Hansen J statistic, p-value 0.5415 0.5393 Hahn-Hausman test (t-statistic) -0.744 -0.763 F statistic, instruments 9.67 9.65 p-value, F statistic 0.0001 0.0001 [R.sup.2] or centered [R.sup.2] 0.0239 0.0244 Note: Standard errors clustered at the commune level are in parentheses. Regional dummies are also included in all equations. The F statistic is corrected for clustering and tests the hypothesis that the coefficients on instruments in the first stage are jointly zero. The Hansen J statistic tests the overidentifying restrictions in the model. Table 5. Regressions Explaining Effect of Migration on Various Definitions of Household Ex-penditure Growth, Vietnam, 1993-1998 Dependent Variable Nonfood Expenditures Model

(1) (2) Number of migrants, 0.079 0.079 household (0.039) (0.039) Changes in household demographics Number of women, -0.011 -0.011

aged fifty five and over (0.01) (0.01) Number of men, -0.015 -0.015

aged sixty and over (0.007) (0.007) Number of women, -0.014 -0.014

aged eighteen to fifty-four (0.004) (0.003) Number of men, -0.006 -0.006

aged eighteen to fifty-nine (0.004) (0.004) Number of children, -0.001 -0.001

aged six to seventeen (0.002) (0.002) Other controls Household, Household,