Peanut research and poverty reduction: impacts of variety improvement to control peanut viruses in Uganda.

Standard Parameter Error p-Value Intercept 0.4291 <0.0001 Male-headed household 0.0949 0.0011 Age of household head squared 0.0000 0.0154 Married household head 0.1003 0.3653 Completed junior level education 0.1744 0.1600 Completed secondary level education 0.0821 0.0005 Received extension advice 0.0304 <0.0001 Market information received, 1998 0.0667 0.0040 Hectares of land owned 0.0333 0.3587 Freehold tenure status 0.0645 <0.0001 Household size 0.0749 0.7249 Income 0.0330 0.0002 Number of hoes owned 0.0704 0.0002 Note: N = 2.059; Max-resealed R-Square = 0.1278; Log-likelihood = -1,048.13. Marginal effect refers to the marginal measured effect of the variable on the probability of adoption. p-value is a test that the coefficient. which is distributed chi-square. is zero. Table 4. Annual Household Income before and after (Predicted) Adoption of Improved Peanut Variety

Percent of Households

Assumed to be Adopting

15% 30% 50% Mean household income (prior 2,056 1,660 1,351

to adoption) of adopters Mean household income (prior 930 850 767

to adoption) of nonadopters Change in household income

(US$)(%in parentheses) open

economy case adopters

Adopters 100 (4.9) 93 (5.6) 84 (6.2) Change in household income

(US$)(%in parentheses)

closed economy case

adopters

Change in producer surplus 41 (2.0) 26 (1.6) 13 (1.0)

Change in consumer surplus 8 (0.4) 13 (0.7) 21 (1.6)

Total income change 49 (2.4) 39 (2.3) 34 (2.5) Nonadopters after adoption

Change in producer surplus -5 (0.2) -9 (0.5) -15 (1.1)

Change in consumer surplus 5 (0.2) 9 (.05) 14 (1.1)

Total income change 0 0 -1 Nonproducing consumers

Total income change 4 (0.4) 8 (0.9) 13 (l.7) Source: Own computation using Uganda National Household Survey 1999-2000 (2001) and results from table 3. Note: The exchange rate between the US$ and the Ugandan shilling was $1: UGX 1,900 in August 2003. Table 5. Poverty Indices for Peanut-Producing and All Sample Households at Various Adoption Rates

0% 0%

Peanut All

Producers Sample Adoption (PP) (AS) Open economy

Headcount 0.7084 0.7456

Depth 0.3286 0.3894

Severity 0.1896 0.2454 Closed economy

Headcount 0.7084 0.7456

Depth 0.3286 0.3894

Severity 0.1896 0.2454

15% 30% Adoption PP AS PP AS Open economy

Headcount 0.7028 0.7442 0.6955 0.7424

Depth 0.3265 0.3888 0.3216 0.3876

Severity 0.1882 0.2451 0.1856 0.2444 Closed economy

Headcount 0.7059 0.7432 0.7079 0.7434

Depth 0.3284 0.3287 0.3272 0.3879

Severity 0.1893 0.2449 0.1886 0.2442

50% 100% Adoption PP AS PP AS Open economy

Headcount 0.6875 0.7404 0.6710 0.7363

Depth 0.3169 0.3864 0.3025 0.3828

Severity 0.1826 0.2437 0.1716 0.2409 Closed economy

Headcount 0.7048 0.7426 0.7071 0.7416

Depth 0.3261 0.3868 0.3244 0.3844

Severity 0.1878 0.2432 0.1858 0.2410 Source: Own computation using FGT formula and data from Uganda National Household Survey 1999-2000 (2001) and results from table 2. Note: Headcount implies a = 0 in FG,r formula, depth implies a = I, and severity implies a = 2. Table 6. Income Changes from Aggregate Surplus(in US$) Analysis Compared to Household-Level Changes Adoption Rate 15% 30% Income change 1,835,000 3,768,000

(economic surplus model) Income change 3,173,000 5,874,000

(household analysis) Difference -1,338,000 -2,106,000 Adoption Rate 50% 100% Income change 6,501,000 14,105,000

(economic surplus model) Income change 8,218,000 14,466,000

(household analysis) Difference -1,717,000 -361,000