French unemployment at a record low.

A summary of 15 polls taken between April 22, 2007 and April 29, 2007 is predicting that the French May 6, 2007 runoff election will be won by the current ruling party candidate. In a CSA Group (Paris) April 22, 2007 poll, 44 percent of respondents said jobs were a central issue.

Jobs, says France's National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies, commonly known as Insee, are likely to grow during the first half of 2007 (March 16, 2007.) In an uncharacteristic burst of exuberance, Insee put it this way: "Job creations [sic] are forecast to continue at a robust pace, totaling about 110,000 in H1."

The improving labor situation is putting some upward pressure on wages, which support consumer spending. And Insee says, "Consumption is likely to remain a growth engine." Tax cuts scheduled for 2007 will also help.

But jobs are the banner headline. A March 30, 2007 Bloomberg News wire story said, "French consumer confidence improved in March [2007] after unemployment fell to the lowest in almost 24 years." The unemployment rate in February 2007 was 8.4 percent, down from 8.5 percent in January 2007. The last time unemployment was this low was June 1983.

Bloomberg reported a rise in confidence from minus 23 in January 2007 to minus 22 in February 2007. Bloomberg added the detail that the main issue expected to influence the French presidential elections, was unemployment. Bloomberg cited the French market Research firm BVA (Paris) for this information.

Given the importance of jobs for the country's consumers, then, and the impressive record low rate of unemployment, why did consumer confidence increase by such a mild amount?

The answer appears to be the uncertainty surrounding the presidential elections with the two candidates taking opposite sides on labor reform. The current ruling party candidate is in favor of loosening France's rigid firing laws. And the socialist candidate wants to tighten them. There is an established relationship between the rigid firing laws and high unemployment, but sentiment is clearly on the side of maintaining the laws. The resulting conflict mutes consumer enthusiasm.

FRANCE NEEDS MORE JOBS TO GROW, AND GROWTH TO PROMOTE MORE JOBS

The population growth rate for France is higher than the regional average, due in part to a birth rate of 13 per thousand inhabitants, which is above the average of 10 per thousand for Western Europe. Job creation has not kept up with growth of the labor force in recent years, but it is likely that the situation will improve further in 2007. Unemployment is running about 8.4 percent, and this continues to create conflict among consumers.

France's population reached 61-million people mid-2006, which amounted to almost exactly a third of Western Europe's 187-million inhabitants. According to data released by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), France's population will reach 63-million by 2025. Also, according to that source, France is going to have a population of 64-million people in 2050.

The PRB revealed that a substantial 76 percent of France's population lived in urban areas during 2006, and that the country's population density is a comparatively moderate 287 people per square mile. France is about the same size as Kenya in land area, but Kenya has only 55 percent as many inhabitants.The CIA's World Factbook, indicates that 18 percent of France's population was birth to 14 years old in 2006, while 65 percent was 15 to 64 years old, and 17 percent of the populace was 65 years of age and over.

CIA statistics revealed that the country's population growth rate was 0.35 percent in 2006. According to the United Nations Population Division, in the year 2050, 16 percent of France's population will be birth to 14 years old, while 51 percent will be aged 15 to 59, and 33 percent of the populace will be 60 years of age and over.