Dwindling oasis: Egypt's water politics.

There isn't much to drink in the desert. Military conflict over water in the Middle East has long been the rule rather than the exception, and control of the resource was a major flashpoint during the Israeli-Arab wars of the late 1960s and early 1970s. Today's most dynamic water debate lies in Egypt, where its historic control of the waters of the Nile River is slowly eroding. Egypt's water security will be tested in the coming years, but the government must resist the temptation to take preemptive action.

For decades, Egypt maintained aggressive control over the Nile by demanding that no efforts be made to impede the river's flow downstream. In 1991, Cairo fueled regional tensions by declaring publicly that it would use force on any nation attempting to impede its utilization of the Nile's waters. Its stance appeared to soften in February 1999, when the ten countries that share the Nile Basin--Egypt, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda--formed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), a toothless organization dedicated to discussing fair distribution of the river's waters. Since the NBI's formation, several projects have been started by the upstream nations to utilize water flow. Tanzania commenced a US$27.6 billion project to build a pipeline extracting freshwater from a source of the Nile, Lake Victoria. Meanwhile, Uganda and Kenya have expressed interest in building a hydroelectric dam along the river.

These are scary prospects for Egypt, especially considering the lack of information it has received on these projects in terms of water allocation. The state newspaper Al-Ahram has openly declared that their government has no details of how much of Egypt's water will be lost due to proposed Nile utilization projects. If other basin nations follow the lead of Tanzania and Uganda, the situation may put hardliners concerned with Egypt's water security on edge. Some 85 percent of the country's water comes from the Nile; a recent column in Al-Ahram warned that the agricultural way of life could come to an end with reduced water quotas.

A drop in water quotas by a small amount could actually be good for Egypt in that it would help hasten the conversion of the country's economy from agriculture to manufacturing and services. The nation's water security advocates, however, are not likely to see this argument in the face of a threat to Egypt's supply of a vital resource. If the volume of water flowing into the country decreases as a result of other nations' projects, President Hosni Mubarak is sure to come under pressure from threatened farmers as well as members of his own party to take drastic action in the form of economic or military warfare.

Mubarak should not give in to this pressure. Egypt cannot afford to alienate its African partners at a time when economic integration in the name of shared development could create gains for the entire region. But more importantly, doing so would destroy much of the credibility that Egypt has earned as a peaceful regional leader. Since signing the Egypt-Israel peace treaty in 1979, Egypt has not used its military or its domestic clout in an aggressive nature. Israel has reciprocated by slowly softening its stance toward its former enemy. If Egypt were to violate that trust and take action against a neighbor, Israel would undoubtedly feel threatened. In a situation already complicated by Iran's slow but steady march toward nuclear armament, an aggressive Egypt could hasten preemptive Israeli military action.

Action by Egypt would also set back recent progress toward water-sharing deals in other parts of the Middle East, including Israel, where it remains an important political issue. Israel is currently secure in the knowledge that it will have water, but a perceived push by an Arab nation such as Egypt toward asserting water dominance could cause it to retreat from its groundbreaking water sharing agreement with Jordan. With Israel already worried about a resurgent Iran, Cairo cannot flex its muscles without expecting severe consequences.

Water is a major flashpoint in the Middle East and Africa. It has been used as an excuse to start wars, including the 1967 Six-Day War, as well as an excuse to bully neighbors, which Egypt has done for much of its existence. But now it must forgo that tendency to dominate. Mubarak and Egyptian officials have so far said all the right things, stressing development, cooperation, and diplomacy over knee-jerk reactions. It remains to be seen whether this friendly approach will last once other nations divert water from the Nile and drink what has been Egypt's water for ages.

associate editor

KIRAN BHAT