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Petraeus Says Stabilising Iraq May Take A Decade.

APS Diplomat Operations in Oil Diplomacy • June 25, 2007 • Lt-Gen David Petraeus

The top US commander in Iraq, Lt-Gen David Petraeus, says stabilising this country could take as long as a decade, says the U.S. commander in Baghdad. His comments came as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prepared to meet with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari on June 18 in Washington. Petraeus on June 17 spoke on "Fox News Sunday". He said: "In fact, typically, I think historically, counter-insurgency operations have gone at least nine or 10 years. The question is, of course, at what level". He said insurgents pushing back on newly aggressive MNF had led to continued violence in Iraq, describing an ebb-and-flow of sectarian murders in Baghdad.

Petraeus added: "The fact is that as we go on the offensive, the enemy is going to respond. That is what has happened". He described a "stunning reversal" in the predominantly-Sunni province of Anbar, a former Qaeda stronghold west of Baghdad where tribes have begun to help fight the Neo-Salafi organisation.

A Pentagon report released recently concluded that violence in Iraq edged higher during a four-month period between February and May - despite the US-led security push in Baghdad. The report raised questions about PM Maliki's ability to fulfill a pledge he made in January to prohibit political interference in security operations and to allow no safe havens for sectarian militias.

US Ambassador in Baghdad Ryan Crocker on June 17 called the situation in Iraq "a mixed picture, but certainly not a hopeless one". He noted frustrations among signs of progress, and cautioned against withdrawing troops too soon. Also on June 17, the US Senate's top Republican said the Iraqis needed to step up their own efforts as the US scaled back troops in the wake of rising violence in and around Baghdad.

Sen Mitch McConnell of Kentucky expressed disappointment with Maliki's progress in stemming violence and said the US presence in Iraq "will be different in the fall", adding: "I don't think we'll have the same level of troops, in all likelihood, that we have now. The Iraqis will have to step up, not only on the political side, but on the military side to a greater extent. We're not there forever".

Congress is waiting for another progress report, due in September, on whether the increase in US troops in Iraq has been successful. About 30,000 additional US troops are being sent to Iraq, with this reinforcement to be completed in July.

To Newsweek, Maliki avoided being drawn into the debate between the Bush administration and Congress. He said the US "helped us by toppling the [Saddam] regime and accomplishing many steps of the political process but they still can leave. If the consequences of staying are bigger than the consequences of leaving, they will leave".

Sunni leaders in Baghdad have warned that if the US does prepare to leave Iraq, they will call on help from Russia or the European powers. They say they will also call for Sunni Arab regimes to intervene, in view of the role in Iraq by the Iran-led axis.

Crocker said the Iraqis were frustrated with their slow progress but were "very close" to agreement on a law for managing the country's petroleum sector and share its resources. Crocker was interviewed from Baghdad on NBC's "Meet the Press". McConnell appeared on CBS' "Face the Nation".


COPYRIGHT 2007 Input Solutions Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.
Copyright 2007, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.


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