A new realism: crafting a US foreign policy for a new century.

US foreign policymakers face novel challenges in the 21st century. Jihadists and environmental crises have replaced armies and missiles as the greatest threats, and globalization has eroded the significance of national borders. Many problems that were once national are now global, and dangers that once came only from states now come also from societies--not from hostile governments, but from hostile individuals or from impersonal social trends, such as the consumption of fossil fuels.

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Despite this sea change of new challenges, there have been only ripples of new thinking about how to address them. While the problems have become largely global and societal, the solutions have not changed accordingly. The United States must craft a new foreign policy adapted to a world of complex global challenges which require thoughtful and global solutions.

An Unchanging Approach to a Changing Paradigm

The failure to modernize US strategic thinking has had serious consequences. Almost six years after 9/11, the international community has achieved only modest improvement in international intelligence coordination and law enforcement to combat Jihadist and criminal networks, and the world has done almost nothing to address the underlying causes of Jihadism. Incredibly, even though Al Qaeda has tried to acquire nuclear weapons, the US government has underfunded efforts to secure loose nukes and fissile materials. US ports, cities, power plants, and transportation networks remain highly vulnerable, and almost nothing has been done to improve the ability to recover from a nuclear or biological terror attack.

Rather than meeting radically new security challenges with radically new approaches, the US government has fought the "war on terror" the old-fashioned way, that is to say, with military force. Literally and figuratively unable to grasp the real stateless enemy, President Bush waged war instead against a state, Iraq, even though its dictator had nothing to do with Al Qaeda. Not surprisingly, waging a 20th century war in the 21st century has not produced the desired results.

Policymakers also have not yet adopted a new paradigm for coping with economic globalization. Despite the profound transformation and rapid growth of the global economy in recent years, they have not gotten beyond tired old debates about "free trade versus protectionism," and they have done little to modernize the international organizations tasked with managing the global economy. The breakdown of the Doha round suggests that the World Trade Organization may no longer be able to politically finesse the social consequences of free trade agreements in the Internet age.

The world community has likewise done far too little to stop global warming or the depletion of natural resources such as fish, farmland, and clean water. Indeed, the United States has failed to even follow, much less to lead, the modest international efforts that have been made on climate change.

The neoconservative experiment for radical transformation through unilateralism has ended in failure, having proved itself poorly adapted to the realities of the 21st century. The war in Iraq has demonstrated that raw US power cannot transform the Middle East--instead, it has shown that the unrestrained and careless use of that power can damage credibility and weaken alliances. Some foreign policy analysts from both political parties now argue that the United States should now return to 20th century realism, in other words, to a policy focused not upon changing other societies, but rather upon maintaining stability and maximizing national power. They correctly point out that neoconservative efforts to transform other societies through force were naive and ill-conceived.

Despite this advice to turn to a traditional realist paradigm, US leaders must do better than just return to the balance-of-power politics of the last century, as the most urgent problems today--from Jihadism to global warming--do not respect national borders, and many of these problems are not state-sponsored. The United States cannot return to state-centered realism, because non-state actors like Al Qaeda are more threatening than any single state's army or air force. Jihadism fomented by the Saudi educational system and terrorist training camps in failed states are far more dangerous than Russian and Chinese arsenals. US security depends as much upon Pakistani and British police efforts as upon its own. US prosperity, energy security, and environmental health are inexorably linked to the environmentally sustainable development of the rest of the world.

To address these changing realities, the United States needs to craft a new realism adapted to the facts of a new century. Such a policy will require a bipartisan paradigm shift as profound as that which occurred in the middle of the last century, when thinkers like George Kennan and Hans Morgenthau saw that the world had changed, that isolation was no longer an option, and that the United States needed to assume a role as global leader.

Today, leadership by the world's only superpower is needed more than ever, but such leadership cannot disregard what goes on inside other societies. No nation can defend its own interests without blending them with the interests of others and seeking common solutions to common problems.

New Realities

Six trends are transforming the world. The global community must simultaneously come to understand and respond to all of them. One trend, of course, is fanatical Jihadism bursting from an increasingly unstable and violent greater Middle East. This trend had been growing for years, but the invasion and subsequent collapse of Iraq have fueled its growth. A second trend is the growing power and sophistication of criminal networks capable of disrupting the global economy and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction. Together, these two trends raise the terrible specter of nuclear terrorism. Al Qaeda wants nuclear weapons, Pakistan's A.Q. Khan sold nuclear materials to rogue states, and former Soviet nuclear weapons are poorly secured. The existence of a black market for nuclear materials is well documented, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons to new countries has further increased the opportunities for Jihadists to obtain them.

A third trend transforming the world is the extraordinarily rapid rise of Asian economic and military power, particularly in China and India. The inclusion of these two countries, the most populous in the world, in international discussion has changed the nature of diplomacy, both through bilateral agreements and through international organizations. A fourth trend is the re-emergence of Russia as an assertive global and regional player, tempted by authoritarianism and militant nationalism, with a large nuclear arsenal and strong control over energy resources. The simultaneous rise of India, China, and Russia requires US strategic leadership to ensure that these powerful nuclear-armed nations may be integrated into a stable global order.

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A fifth trend transforming the world is the growth of both global economic interdependence and of global financial imbalances, unaccompanied by the growth of institutional capacities to manage these realities. Globalization has made national economies more vulnerable to resource constraints and financial shocks originating beyond national borders, and growing global demand for energy has the potential to lead to geopolitical tensions or even a global energy crisis. Financial imbalances related to the US trade deficit and the accumulation of dollar assets by Asian nations could lead to a dangerous collapse of the US dollar.

The sixth trend is the globalization of urgent health, environmental, and social problems. Global warming and pandemics like AIDS do not respect national borders. Poverty, ethnic conflict, and overpopulation also spill over borders, feeding what Moises Naim has called the "five wars of globalization" (over drugs, arms trafficking, money laundering, intellectual property, and alien smuggling).

These six trends present the global community with problems which are international in their origins and effects and will therefore require international solutions. They cry out for political leadership which only the United States is currently capable of providing. If the world succeeds in preventing nuclear terrorism, defeating Jihadism, integrating rising powers into a stable order, protecting global financial market stability, and fighting environmental and health threats, the United States will surely deserve much of the credit. If the world fails to meet these challenges, the United States will just as surely deserve much of the blame.

A New Realism

The United States needs a new realism in its foreign policy if it is to meet the challenges of this changed world. Such a new realism must harbor no illusions about the importance of a strong military in a dangerous world, but it must also understand the importance of diplomacy and multilateral cooperation in a world in which what goes on inside of one country has profound impacts on other countries.

A new realist foreign policy will require that the United States alter its present course in several ways. First and foremost, the United States must repair its alliances. The United States cannot lead other nations toward solutions to shared problems if these other nations do not trust US leadership. US policymakers need to restore respect and appreciation for US allies and for shared democratic values in order to coordinate international efforts for global problems.