Smoke, mirrors, and the joker in the pack: on transitioning to democracy and the rule of law in post-Soviet Armenia.

Analysis of post-Soviet elections and plebiscites in Armenia, the balance of power among the branches of government enshrined in Armenia's 1995 Constitution, and both the process of amendment and the substance of the amended Constitution adopted through a referendum in December 2005 indicate that the country is in the throes of a creeping authoritarianism, a pseudo democracy with a de facto autocrat at its helm. (36) Despite the apparent wide-ranging changes in the legal and political landscape since 1991, rule of law reform and the spread of democracy is largely superficial and formalistic. (37) The people of Armenia are experiencing a simulacrum of democracy that has dashed their hopes and expectations of post-Soviet transformation.

Part II of this Article summarizes Armenia's recent economic, social, and political history. Part III summarizes and analyzes trends in the conduct of Armenia's post-Soviet elections, describing the events surrounding elections, including alleged and documented violations and the popular demonstrations against the results. Part IV employs narrative devices to give the flavor of the Armenian presidential elections of 2003, of which the author was an observer. Part V examines Armenia's Constitution, centering on the status of the Judiciary and the process and looked-for benefits of the Constitution's 2005 amendment as a mechanism to evaluate adherence to the rule of law. Part VI attempts to identify the "joker in the pack," while Part VII concludes by assaying the steps required for transition to democracy and adherence to the rule of law in Armenia.

II. ARMENIA AFTER THE U.S.S.R.

A strategically important country (38) with which most Americans are unfamiliar, for a period of time after dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia reportedly received the second largest amount of annual aid from the United States on a per capita basis, only behind Israel. (39) Since 1993, the Republic has received grants and loans from international monetary and lending institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, totaling more than $1 billion (USD). (40) In addition, since 1992, the United States alone directed more than $1.6 billion (USD) in aid to Armenia. (41) Although the relationship with the United States is a close one and Diaspora Armenians defend Armenia's interests in the United States, (42) Armenia also maintains close ties with Russia (43) and Iran (44)--strategic alignments that provide a buffer from the hostility of its Turkish and Azeri neighbors. (45)

A. Geography and History of Armenia

Landlocked in mountainous territory between the Caspian and Black Sea, today's Armenia is a mere fragment of the Armenian people's historic territory, which once stretched from eastern Turkey through the Transcaucasus. (46) A region of contested dominance among the Persian, Ottoman, and Tsarist Russian empires, (47) the territory that is now Armenia was conquered and annexed into the Russian Empire in 1828. (48) A brief independence from the Russians, lasting from 1918 until 1921, was followed by absorption into the Soviet Union. (49) It was after the conquest by communist Russia that the current borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan were delineated in their current configuration, (50) laying the groundwork for the current conflict with Azerbaijan.

B. Post-Soviet Political Developments; Conflicts & Consequences

Armenia remained a Soviet Republic until 1991, when the Republic declared its independence based on a plebiscite, during which citizens of Soviet Armenia voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence from the Soviet Union. (51) Since gaining its independence, the people of this tiny (52) Transcaucasian republic have engaged in fierce conflict with their neighbor, Azerbaijan. (53) As a consequence, Armenia has also continued to endure a closed border and economic blockade (54) by Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey, its large neighbor to the west. It has also experienced the traumatic assassination of Members of its Parliament broadcast live on public television. (55)

In 1988, the Supreme Soviet of Nagorno-Karabagh, the majority Armenian Autonomous Region within Azerbaijan's borders, (56) delivered a request to Moscow that the region be transferred from Azerbaijan's to Armenia's control. (57) The request was met with strong public reactions in both countries--an outpouring of large public demonstrations in Armenia in support of the request (58) and anti-Armenian pogroms in Azerbaijan. (59) Tension and allegations of mistreatment and massacre escalated on both sides, leading to the outbreak of hostilities. The situation deteriorated with more demonstrations, pogroms, exchanges of population and military conflict. (60) Armenia's Azeris fled the Republic and Azerbaijan's Armenians fled Azerbaijan. (61) The U.S.S.R., unable to contain the conflict, and further preoccupied by its own woes, switched support from Azerbaijan to Armenia (62) on the basis of geopolitical imperatives (63) and as its own leadership changed. (64)

The conflict increased following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and continued until 1994, when a ceasefire was brokered under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk Group. (65) The conflict left Armenia cleansed of its Soviet-era Azeri population (66) and holding one-fifth of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, (67) including the Lachin corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabagh. (68)

During and subsequent to the conflict, Armenia endured a blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey which interrupted its communications, transport, and energy supply links with Russia and the wider world. (69) Armenia also suffered a devastating earthquake in 1988 that killed 25,000 people. (70) The energy crisis that began with the 1989 imposition of the blockade (71) contributed to a ruinous shrinkage of its economy, epitomized by a 60% decrease in GDP between 1991 and 1993. (72) The energy crisis ended only with the reopening of the Medzamor nuclear plant in 1995. (73)

C. Political Leaders and Assassins

Armenia's leadership is inextricably linked with the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict; it was from the group of leaders who supported Karabagh's bid to rejoin Armenia (the Karabagh Committee) that the nation's post-Soviet leadership arose. (74) Levon Ter-Petrossian, Armenia's first post-Soviet president who served from 1991 to 1998, as well as key figures in his government, led the Karabagh Committee as it transformed into the Armenian National Movement, which spearheaded the call for Armenia's independence from the Soviet Union. (75)

Ter-Petrossian's willingness to negotiate with Azerbaijan and Turkey about Karabagh's fate (perhaps even allowing Karabagh to remain an autonomous region of Azerbaijan in return for a lifting of the crippling Azeri-Turkey blockade) (76) led to his resignation in 1998. (77) Ter-Petrossian was replaced by Robert Kocharian, a Karabagh-born prime minister, and ardent defender of Karabagh's right to decide its own status.

On October 27, 1999, five gunmen entered the Armenian parliamentary Assembly, killing Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian; the President of the National Assembly, Karen Demirjian; and six other officials. (78) The gunmen surrendered the next day after holding the surviving Legislative body hostage overnight. (79) Soon after the capture, the prosecutor's decisions regarding the indictment of the gunmen and the nature of the charges to be brought against them ended any zealous official investigation into a potentially wide-ranging plot. (80) The five gunmen were charged as individuals, and the public investigation of unapprehended conspirators ceased. (81)

The power behind the gunmen, if any, has not been revealed. Mr. Nairi Hunuanian, the leader of the gunmen, was convicted of murder in December 2004 and sentenced to life imprisonment. (82) The war, the trauma of the assassination, and the farcical trial of the accused perpetrators left deep scars on the Armenian psyche and public life. (83)

The killings removed in one fell swoop Robert Kocharian's most influential opponents, (84) arousing the enduring suspicions of Armenians regarding his involvement in the assassination conspiracy. (85) The elimination of his opponents allowed the consolidation of more power within the office of the president. (86)

D. Apparent Progress

Despite this tumult, Armenia appears to have made astonishing progress on the road toward democracy and international standing. Armenia sought international legitimacy by, among other things, signing international conventions and carrying out amendments to its Soviet-era legislation. For example, Armenia acceded to the following international conventions: the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, (87) the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, (88) the Convention on the Rights of the Child (89) and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. (90)

In 2001, the Republic made significant strides in its efforts to strengthen its relationship with Europe, acceding to the Council of Europe and ratifying the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms. (91) In January 2003, Armenia became a member of the World Trade Organization. (92) To the cursory Western observer, adoption of these new international obligations reflects a movement toward recognition and enforcement of fundamental international norms.