Stability returns to comsat market: orders are expected to remain in the low twenties for the next few years.

* having the most reliable and most flexible satellite technology; Eutelsat has five new satellites currently under construction--Hot Bird-9 (scheduled for launch in June-August 2008); W-2M (September-December 2008); W-2A, with S-band payload, and Hot Bird-10 (January-March 2009); and W-7 (June-August 2009). Launches have been split between Ariane-5 (3) and Sea Launch (2);

* optimisation of the 24-satellite fleet to develop the high-growth video business; Eutelsat currently broadcasts 2,600 channels, 500 of which have been added over the past 12 months, representing 72.2% of revenues as of June 2007;

* investing in new generations of satellites and payloads that will open the door to new services such as mobile video and interactive services via S-band (2009) and broadband via a dedicated Ka-band satellite (2010).

Regional partnerships

Regional operators, meanwhile, are making no secret of their interest in partnership and teaming arrangements. Turksat, which the Turkish government has charged with responsibility for developing information and communication technology (teledistribution, satellites, e-government) on Turkish territory, is looking for an international partner for the operation of space systems. Turksat and Tubitak (the Turkish science and technology research council) will form a pole within the still-to-be-created national space agency for testing and integration of future Turkish satellites.

Israel's Spacecom, which operates the Amos satellites at 4[degrees]W (two in orbit, with a third set to fly on Land Launch in March 2008), wants to consolidate its international position. It has recently ordered the 3.8t Amos-4 from IAI, which will cover Asia, Africa and the Mediterranean with Ku- and Ka-bad transponders from an orbital position over the Indian Ocean. Half of the satellite's capacity has been reserved by the government, which has provided $265 million of the total cost of $365 million. Spacecom VP strategy Omri Arnon says the company is exploring a joint venture arrangement for another satellite, which could be launched before Amos-4, if discussions currently in progress--which also involve IAI--reach a successful conclusion in the near future. Arnon says the exact mission and position of this satellite have still to be defined.

In 2010-2011, Europe will enter the era of mobile video and digital satellite radio. For several years now, Worldspace, with a geostationary platform (initially Afristar at 21[degrees]E) and Ondas Media, with plans for three satellites in inclined ellipitical orbits, have been eyeing the European market for broadcasting L-band (1.4GHz) programmes to vehicles. Both projects have been held back by financing problems and difficulties in obtaining a European broadcasting licence.

Eutelsat and SES have decided to join forces in another, poorly defined market segment--pocket TV receivers. They have formed a Dublin-based joint venture and are investing jointly in an S-band (2.2GHz) payload on the W2A satellite which Eutelsat has ordered from Thales Alenia Space for launch in early 2009. They are proposing a Complementary Ground Component (CGC) network so that very-high-power digital TV channels can be received on portable terminals. A second satellite is under consideration. The project faces two unknowns concerning broadcasting in Europe: the licensing procedure (not before 2011?) and the lack of coordination between the European Commission and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) which records national requests for positions and frequencies.

Terrestar debut

A new US operator, Terrestar Networks--which has recently created a European subsidiary, Telekom Austria--is also seeking a European S-band licence for its Terrestar-3 satellite, scheduled for launch in 2011.

In the broadband segment, the star of the past year has been WildBlue. The Colorado-based company, with Ka-band capacity on two geostationary satellites at 111 .l[degrees]W (Anik-F2, launched in July 2004, and WildBlue-1, which has been in orbit since December 2006), has made a dramatic entry onto the North American market. WildBlue offers broadband internet connectivity with low-cost, minidish terminals which are easy to install, using Viasat Surf Beam/Docsis technology to maintain transmission quality and overcome signal attenuation due to rain and snow. The company has more than 250,000 subscribers and is adding new customers at a rate of up to 30,000 per week.

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WildBlue is looking for Ka-band transponders, particularly from Echostar, to meet this growing demand. The success of the venture has prompted Ka-band specialist Viasat to consider plans for its own Ka-band satellite, according to Viasat VP broadband Marc Agnex, who confirms that the company is studying proposals from Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Loral, since Itar regulations prevent the company from working with European manufacturers. The Viasat platform, which is scheduled for launch in 2010 to 77[degrees]W, could be jointly operated with WildBlue.

While Ka-band satellites (HughesNet/ SpaceWay, Telesat/Anik-F, Dish Network/Echostar) are in high demand in North America, Europe is focusing on satellite broadband service to isolated regions with poor access to terrestial networks. In March, SES Astra inaugurated its Astra2Connect Ku-band service using Newtec's Sat3Play system (80cm dish, 1Mb/s downlink, 128kb/s uplink).

SES is currently leaning towards a hybrid Ku-band/Ka-band satellite, rather than a dedicated Ka-band platform. Eutelsat plans to launch a Ka-band satellite in 2010 to the Hot Bird position at 13[degrees]E. Its answer to Astra2Connect is Tooway, with hub operations in the SkyPark telport in Turin, under a partnership with Skylogic and Viasat, using Docsis technology. Service will be available from the end of the year in Germany, France, Spain and Bulgaria.

SpaceX success

UK-based Avanti Communications plans to launch broadband HDTV and internet service in Ka-band in 2009. The orbital platform will be the EADS Astrium/Isro Hylas satelllite, but no information has yet been released on the ground segment. Eyebrows were raised when Avanti announced that it had selected the untested SpaceX Falcon-9 as the launch vehicle. The launch is scheduled for mid2009, but SpaceX has yet to successfully fly its Falcon-1 mini-launcher that is the pre-cursor for the heavylift Falcon-9, which will be designed to place 2.6t into geostationary orbit. Avanti has also booked three options for satellites to be launched through 2012. The decision is all the more surprising considering that Avanti has financial backing from BNSC and ESA (which is providing one-third of the total cost) under a public-private partnership arrangement. The launcher selection clearly ignores the "European preference" policy that is supposed to apply to ESA satellites, though as a minority contributor, the European agency cannot impose the choice of launcher. According to Jean-Yves Le Gall of Arianespace, the Avanti business plan included a launch cost equivalent to 10% of a launch on Ariane-5.

Another high-growth market which SES has firmly in its sights through its NDSatcom subsidiary is government communications. SES CEO Romain Bausch indicates that the company is studying a satellite system for France that would be operated by SESNDSatcom, offering capacity for the defence, interior and foreign affairs ministries. This "post-Syracuse 3" concept would be based on the UK Paradigm and German Satcom-BW systems.

GOVERNMENT BUSINESS THE KEY FOR BOEING SATELLITES, LAUNCHERS

Although Boeing has built one-third of the 254 communication satellites currently in service, it has yet to sell a commercial satellite this year. Last year, it sold just three satellites (702 platforms) to MSV. The reason for this is that, over the past 10 years, Boeing has switched from being primarily (70/30) a builder of commercial satellites to being primarily a supplier of satellites to the US government. The current order book contains around 25 satellites, not including classified programmes.

In the telecommunications sector, Boeing is offering the heavy 702 platform for satellites in the 5.5-6.5t class, with 12-18kW power (highly complex payload, active antenna, reconfiguration, flexibility, etc). Examples include the DirecTV series (DirecTV-10 launched in July, two others under construction), Spaceway (Spaceway-3 launched in August), Thuraya (Thuraya-3 to be launched in October), and MSV (three satellites under construction).

Boeing is also working on a lighter 702B variant (6-8 and 10-12kW) which will be on the market in 3-5 years. Boeing Satellite Systems International President Stephen O'Neill says discussions are ongoing with several potential customers.

The two key prizes in Boeing's sights at the present time, however, ore the GOES-R next-generation weather satellites and the TDRS-K to N relay satellites. The contracts, each of which covers two firm satellite orders plus two options, represent a total value of S2 billion. Boeing has previous experience on both programmes. It developed GOES-N, -0 and -P. The former was designated GOES-13 following its launch in June. The next two launches will be on Delta-4s, in 2008 and 2009. Boeing also developed TDRS-H to J, launched in 2000-2002. Boeing is hopeful of winning both contracts in the coming months.