Stability returns to comsat market: orders are expected to remain in the low twenties for the next few years.

On the military side, the launch of Boeing's first Wideband Global SATCOM satellite, WGS-1, is now scheduled for 10 October. The next two satellites in the series will be launched in 2008, with a fourth to follow in 2011. The contract is for five satellites in all, with an option for a sixth. These are 702 platforms (13kW) providing Defense Satellite Communications System (X-band) and Global Broadcast Service (Ka-band) capacity. Boeing is also in competition with Lockheed Martin for the future Transformational Satellite Communications System (TSAT) programme. Proposals were submitted this summer, and a contract award is expected by the end of the year.

The first TSAT launch is scheduled for 2013. The two rivals are also in competition for the next-generation GPS-3 satellite series, due to go into orbit in 2013. The GPS-3 series will comprise a total of 32 satellites--eight GPS-3As, eight GPS-3Bs and 16 GPS-3Cs. A contract announcement is expected by the end of the year. Boeing submitted its 702-based proposal on 27 August. Boeing developed the 12 satellites in the GPS-2F series. According to Howard Chambers, who is VP and head of military programmes, the first GPS-2F is scheduled for launch on on EELV in the first quarter 2008, followed by a further two per year for the next five years.

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Government launches are now in the hands of United Launch Alliance, the Boeing/Lockheed Martin joint venture that produces and launches Atlas and Delta launch vehicles for the Pentagon, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Boeing is in charge of Delta commercial launches, as well as being the largest shareholder (41%) in Sea Launch.

Delta-2 still has five Navstar-2Rs to launch for the USAF through the end of 2008, and ULA is under contract to provide this launcher for NASA missions through 2012. What happens thereafter depends on whether the USAF and NASA are prepared to place further orders for Delta-2, since the demand on the commercial market is unlikely to be enough to keep the production line running.

The estimated cost of a Delta-2 launch is around S70 million, compared with $140 million for the Delta-4, though the actual cost varies as a function of the version, i.e. the number of strap-on boosters. An increasing number of observers speculate that ground infrastructure costs could be added to the launch costs, rendering the launcher non-competitive.

Boeing is currently making a comeback on the commercial launch market--the June launch of the first Cosmo/Skymed on a Delta-2 marked its first commercial launch in five years. It was followed by WorldView-1 on September 18. Boeing Launch Services currently has a backlog of four Delta-2 launches: two Cosmo/Skymeds, GeoEye-1 in early 2008, and another, unannounced payload in 2008. BLS VP Kenneth Heinly explains that these platforms (imaging satellites operating from a sun-synchronous orbit) correspond to the company's primary target market--a niche in which he claims Delta-2 offers the best service to the customer. BLS is currently planning on 2-3 commercial launches per year through 2011.

Delta-4 is presently gearing up for the October launch of a Defense Support Program early warning satellite (DSP-23) on a Delta4-H--the eighth Delta-4 since 2002. According to Heinly, five government launches and one commercial mission (GOES-O) are scheduled for 2008. This will be followed by an additional commercial mission (GOES-P) and an unspecified number of government launches in 2009. He says that GEO communication satellites constitute the primary target for commercial launches. SATELLITE AND LAUNCH CONTRACTS IN 2007

SATELLITES Contractor Satellite Thales Alenia Thor-6

Palapa-D

Arabsat-5A and 5B *

Yahsat-1A and 1B * EADS Astrium Amazonas-2

Arabsat-5A and 5B **

Yahsat-1A and 1B ** Boeing -- Lockheed Martin -- Loral Nimiq-5

Intelsat-14

Echostar-14

NSS-12

Sirius-6 Orbital Optus-D3

IS-15

AMC-5R

AMC (ground) + 2 options IAI (Israel) Amos-4

LAUNCHES Launch co. Operator Satellite Launcher Arianespace Protostar Protostar-1 Ariane-5

SES Americom AMC-21 Ariane-5

HNS Spaceway-3 Ariane-5

Horizons Horizons-2 Ariane-5

Intelsat Inte sat-11 Ariane-5

Arabsat Arabsat-5B Ariane-5

SES NSS-9, NSS-12 Ariane-5

Optus Optus D3 Ariane-5 Soyuz

French MoD ELISA Soyuz

Globalstar G oWstar-2 Soyuz

JSAT Corp JCSAT-12 Ariane-5

Telenor Thor-b Ariane-5 Soyuz

RascomStar-QAF Rascom-1 Ariane-5

ISRO Insot-4G Ariane-5 ILS *** Ciel (Canada) Ciel-2 Proton

CMBStar Ec ostar Proton

Nimiq-5 Telesat Proton

MSV MSV-1 Proton

Ara b sat Arabsat-5A Proton

SES 5 satellites Proton

Inmarsat Inmarsat-4F3 Proton Sea Launch MSV MSV-2 Sea Launch

Italie (MoD) ? Sicra-1B ? Sea Launch ? China Indosat Palapa-D Long March * Thales Alenia Space payload. ** EADS Astrium platform. *** Four unannounced contracts not shown