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A pandemic could cripple Alaska economy: prepare in case of catastrophe.


It is predicted that we are due any day for the next pandemic influenza. Over the past 1,000 years, a pandemic has occurred every 10 to 50 years. The most recent pandemics to hit American soil killed more than 600,000 Americans in 1918, 1957 and 1968. During 1918's "Great Pandemic," Alaskan Territorial Gov. Thomas Riggs Jr. imposed a maritime quarantine to protect citizens, but that did not stop the spread of the flu from the Lower 48 states. Some Alaska villages were wiped out entirely and others suffered losses of 85 percent of their populations. Those who were not killed by the virus froze to death and others starved.

Despite the fact that Alaska is geographically isolated from the rest of the country, it does not mean that the state is immune to infection. "When it comes to pandemics, there is no rational basis to believe that the early years of the 21st century will be different than the past," said Mike Leavitt, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in 2006. If a pandemic strikes again, it will affect all states.

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Alaska's economy could lose $2.6 billion due to a severe pandemic flu, according to a study conducted by the Trust for America's Health. The state's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to drop 6.59 percent, the third highest anticipated percentage loss of all 50 states, trailing only Nevada and Hawaii. A projected 192,000 Alaskans could fall ill and 4,000 more could die, the study reported.

Despite the prediction that Alaska's economy could suffer greater economic losses than 47 states, the state ranks 48th in terms of funds allocated for pandemic preparations by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The federal government has indicated numerous times that, while it will provide support during a pandemic, the ultimate responsibility for flu pandemic preparedness lies with individual states. The state government has a plan in place to prepare for a pandemic. As a business owner, have you prepared your organization to continue operations during a flu outbreak? Will you know what to do if 40 percent of your work force is unable to come to work, either because they or their families are sick or because they are afraid of getting sick from others?

It is imperative that Alaska businesses prepare for the possibility of pandemic just as they need to prepare for any other emergency situation. Useful criteria to consider when analyzing your organization's readiness for a pandemic include:

* Will my business manage if a large number of employees become ill?

* Will my business be able to track infected employees? Absent employees?

* Does my business have policies regarding sick or absent employees and did my business consider their unique requirements specific to a pandemic?

* Has my business educated employees on our pandemic-related policies and plans?

* Has my business identified our most important business processes, and do we know what is required to keep them operational?

* Does my business know who our key business operations players are and how to operate without them?

* Does my business know who our critical suppliers are? Do we know what kinds of plans they have in place to continue supporting our organization?

* Does my business have a crisis communications plan?

* Can my business enable employees to work from home and manage them if they are unable or unwilling to travel to a central work location?

* Can my business ensure electronic access to data, processes, tools and plans?

* Will my business be able to continue to operate systems and business processes in a crisis?

* Will my business be able to communicate and share data with suppliers and partners?

* Have my pandemic business response plans been reviewed by an experienced, independent third party?

If you cannot answer yes to each of the above questions, your business leaders should consider developing a pandemic business continuity plan. While there is no guarantee that your plans will ensure that everything will go smoothly if and when a pandemic occurs, proper planning and preparation can guarantee that losses incurred by your organization will be mitigated.

When creating a pandemic preparedness plan, businesses must be certain that all policies are legally sound. The process should be completed with human resource and medical experts, who can advise businesses on appropriate policies and procedures. A few general guidelines should be kept in mind when creating a pandemic preparedness plan.

Business leaders will want to minimize the number of infected employees by discouraging those with influenza or those who have been exposed to the virus from attending work. Our culture's strong work ethic has led to 'presenteeism,' which leads unhealthy workers to want to (or feel obligated to) go to work despite the fact that they might infect others. During a flu outbreak, this cultural norm may lead to a company's entire work force being infected.

Remember that any policy denying an employee access to the workplace must be based on objective criteria and be consistently applied. Arbitrarily banning employees from the workplace or an application of such a policy could result in claims of discrimination. If an employer has a reasonable belief that an employee is sick, an employer should be able to deny access to the workplace until the employer receives confirmation that the employee has been medically cleared to return to work. Examples of situations where an employer may have a reasonable basis for believing the employee is sick include situations where an employee is symptomatic, was quarantined or was caring for someone who was quarantined.

On the other hand, businesses must also consider that during a flu outbreak, some employees may not want to go to work to avoid potentially getting sick from a co-worker. While fear of contracting a contagious disease alone likely would not be sufficient to justify a work refusal, a pandemic preparedness policy should take into consideration the work refusal provisions of any applicable legislation and ensure that the human resources department, management and supervisors know what action to take if an employee raises a concern about exposure to a contagion in the workplace. The Pandemic 101 Family Kit is designed to educate and provide necessary products so families will be better prepared. Employees whose jobs require them to care for ill people often have specific statutes that dictate what is expected of them in such cases and which typically impose greater obligations to accept risk than might be expected of the average employee.

Recommended influenza preparation resources include:

* World Health Organization: http://www. who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

* U.S. Government Avian Influenza Awareness: http://pandemicflu.gov

* Center for Disease Control-Avian Flu: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

* Pandemic 101: www.pandemic101.com

Editor's Note: In an announcement released on Oct. 2, 2007, at the University of Wisconsin Madison school of Veterinary Medicine, researchers have identified a key step bird flu virus takes to spread rapidly in humans. Bird flu first appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong and has been slowly evolving into a pathogenic "better equipped to infect humans," according to the release. "The final form of the virus, biomedical researchers fear, will be a highly pathogenic strain of influenza that spreads easily among humans."

The virus, through a single change in a viral protein, can impact the virsus' ability to infect cells in the upper respiratory system. It can also infect a wider range of cell types and can easily be spread, potentially setting the stage for a flu pandemic.

Scott Ashley is president of Pandemic 101 Corp. and Respond Solutions. For 15 years, Ashley served the citizens of Alberta, California and Ontario as a paramedic. He spent eight of those years as a critical care flight paramedic on the prestigious "Bandage One" air ambulance helicopter, based in Toronto. Ashley partnered with other infectious disease and emergency management experts to form Pandemic 101 in May 2007. As the only business of its kind, Pandemic 101 provides valuable resources for pandemic preparedness information, as well as corporate and family pandemic preparedness products. For more information about how Pandemic 101 can help your business prepare for the possibility of a pandemic, visit www.pandemic101.com or call 1-888FLU-PREP (1-888-358-7737).

COPYRIGHT 2007 Alaska Business Publishing Company, Inc. Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.

Copyright 2007, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.


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