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Weekly UpdatesGrowing recognition of the need to treat forests could lead to greater acceptance of treatments, producing more resilient forest conditions and increasing the volume of wood available for forest products and biomass energy.
Forest management will become even more complex and challenging, with opportunities to apply more sophisticated forest management regimes and logging operations. This could lead to a need for more workers in the forest with new skills and knowledge.
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Agriculture
With 56.5 million acres of farmland, agriculture is Montana's largest industry, generating an average of $2 billion annually in cash receipts. Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability, so rising temperatures could have significant impacts.
The trouble with predicting what might happen is that if climate changes do occur, there could be two different scenarios: 1. It could be warmer and wetter; 2. It could be warmer and drier.
If Montana becomes warmer and wetter and increased C[O.sub.2] concentrations improve crop and forage yields, the state's agricultural production will expand, and agriculture will likely become more diverse. Wheat is Montana's leading crop because it is most drought-resistant. Warmer, wetter weather might allow us to grow different types of crops such as soybeans and more varieties of corn.
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Warmer, drier weather would be bad news for farmers and ranchers. Montana already has drought issues. In the last several years, the heat has been hard on spring wheat, and we may begin to see a shift toward winter wheat. Certainly, any trend that would cause less precipitation would be a problem. A drier climate would bring water shortages and not much change in crop variety.
Whether global warming causes Montana's climate to become warmer and wetter or warmer and drier, agronomic conditions will change. Soil science and range management research and education is needed to enable both crop producers and livestock operators to improve their economic performance. (4)
Energy
Montana should see a stunning realignment of energy sources in upcoming years. Renewable sources such as solar energy, wind power, and biomass fuels will become increasingly important as we try to reduce C[O.sub.2] and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon retains solar heat that would otherwise radiate away.
On the forefront of wind energy is the Judith Gap Energy Center, with 90 wind turbines that line both sides of Highway 191 between Harlowtown and Judith Gap. Each turbine can create enough power to supply about 600 homes with power. (5)
"Wind power is the most efficient way to make electricity. The fuel costs are extremely low, the technology is mature, and maintenance of the machines is a manageable expense," says the energy center's manager Phil Stiles.
Wind is currently only 1 or 2 percent of the national energy supply, but it could easily be 40 percent as the number of turbines increase throughout the United States, Stiles says.
Future Technologies
Several technologies on the horizon might help reduce carbon emissions and slow global warming.
Carbon sequestration is the process of removing additional carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in other "reservoirs" such as forests, soils, oceans, or underground in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, coal seams, and saline aquifers.
Scientists, governments, and energy companies are getting excited about carbon sequestration because they see it as a way to cut emissions without interrupting our energy supply. (6) For example, in the United States half the electricity generated comes from coal, which is a major source of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. If fumes from coal plants could be "sequestered," or pumped deep into the ground, we might prevent them from spewing C[O.sub.2] into the atmosphere.
Forests play an important role in reducing greenhouse gases, absorbing C[O.sub.2] from the air and storing it in tree trunks, branches, foliage, and roots. In the United States, forests sequester approximately 200 to 280 million tons of carbon per year, offsetting 10 to 20 percent of our country's emissions from fossil fuels. (7)
Ethanol is an alternative fuel that some say might help wean the United States from its dependence on oil. Currently, half of the nearly 11 billion bushels of corn produced each year is turned into ethanol, and most new cars are capable of running on [E.sub.l0] (10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline.) (8)
Cellulosic ethanol is also promising. Conventional ethanol and cellulosic ethanol are the same product but are produced using different feedstocks and processes. Conventional ethanol is derived from grains such as corn and wheat or soybeans. Cellulosic ethanol can be produced from agricultural plant wastes, plant wastes from industrial processes (sawdust, paper pulp), and energy crops grown specifically for fuel production, such as switchgrass. Cellulosic ethanol exhibits a net energy content three times higher than corn ethanol and emits a low net level of greenhouse gases.
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The market outlook for ethanol shows strong potential. (9) Because of the variety of feedstocks that can be used, ethanol may offer opportunities for new jobs and economic growth outside the traditional grain belt.
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Thin-film solar is another technology with tremendous potential. "Few power-generation technologies have as little impact on the environment as photovoltaics. As it quietly generates electricity from light, PV produces no air pollution or hazardous waste. It doesn't require liquid or gaseous fuels to be transported or combusted. And because its energy source--sunlight--is free and abundant, PV systems can guarantee access to electric power," according to the U.S. Department of Energy Web site.
Thin films of special photovoltaic material can produce solar cells with relatively high conversion efficiencies, while using much less material than traditional crystalline silicon cells. This new technology is currently being used on windows and roofs, and companies are scrambling to find other ways to use it creatively.
Health Care
Heat waves, hurricanes, torrential rain storms, and the spread of tropical diseases are sometimes associated with global warming. While Montana may have a few very hot days during the summer, we probably won't have to deal with extreme weather issues or diseases like malaria, dengue fever, cholera, and leptospirosis, which hit Central America in 1988 after Hurricane Mitch dropped six feet of rain.
But perhaps more subtle, gradual climate changes can affect human health. During the past two decades, asthma has quadrupled in the United States, partly due to climate-related factors. (10) Allergy-related conditions may also be increasing due to change in allergens circulating from earlier blooms and/or increased air particulates from inversion and warming.
It is difficult to determine how global warming might impact Montana's health care industry other than the fact that doctors may see more people with asthma and allergies. They may also treat more people with respiratory illnesses due to an increasing number of wildfires. But there are definitely some human health and comfort issues that are noteworthy.
In Montana, winter temperatures won't be as cold, so those months will be safer for children and older people. On the flip side, there may be more demand for air conditioning. Green architecture will become very important as designers strive for energy-efficient, environmentally healthy homes and buildings.
Conclusion
Climate changes in Montana over the next 30 years will be subtle, but they will impact our industries in a variety of ways. We may see tourists visiting Montana earlier in the season; forests that are overstocked and more susceptible to insects, disease, and fire; a shift from spring wheat to winter wheat; more windmills and solar panels; more people with allergies and asthma.
What's frustrating, Running says, is the fact that in 10 years we will probably have the technology to fix the global warming problem, but we might have trouble getting the international cooperation we need. Asian economies are growing rapidly, and carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are on a steep incline (Figure 1, page 7).
At the state level, we've taken some steps to deal with global warming. The 2007 Montana Legislature passed Gov. Brian Schweitzer's "clean and green" energy proposal, which emphasizes "clean and green" coal development, carbon sequestration, wind power, and less dependence on foreign oil. Schweitzer says he envisions Montana as a leader in energy development. (11)
University of Montana President George Dennison has signed an initiative called the American College & University Climate Commitment. Dennison's signature makes UM among the first 100 institutions in the nation to answer a call to action by pledging to reduce campus greenhouse gas emissions. The fact that UM climate scientist Steve Running is on the cutting edge of global warming research doesn't hurt either.
References
(1) Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior (www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glaciers.htm).
(2) National Park Service, U.S. Department of the interior (www.nps.gov/ yell/naturescience/wildlandfire.htm).
(3) Backus, Perry. "Former FS Chiefs Say Fire Costs Eating Budget." Missoulian, May, 2007.
(4) Smith, Vincent H. "The Challenge of Global Warming: Economic issues for Montana." Montana State University.
(5) Joyner, Amy. "The Sky's The Limit: Wind Farms Supplement Traditional Montana Power Sources." Montana Business Quarterly, Autumn 2006.
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