Impact of designated preservation areas on rate of preservation and rate of conversion: preliminary evidence.

(1) Recent evidence finds that preservation programs decrease the 5-year rate of county farmland loss by 3 percentage points; a 43% decrease from the average 5-year rate of 7.31% (Liu and Lynch 2006).

(2) Data limitations precluded an analysis of the programs' payments over this period.

(3) More details on data are available in Lynch et al. (2007).

(4) Liken this to each worker earning an average of $2.00 more per hour after a training program.

Lori Lynch is Associate Professor and Xiangping Liu is Graduate Student in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland.

This article was presented in a principal paper session at the AAEA annual meeting (Portland, OR, July 2007). The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process. Table 1. Estimated Coefficient Estimates for the Propensity Score Logistic Regression Pseudo [R.sup.2] = 0.4643 Log likelihood = -3979.79 Dependent Variable In/out of Rural Legacy Area Independent Variables

Coef. Estimates Std. Err. Acres 0.0048 0.0043 Waterfront 0.8542 *** 0.1544 On public sewer 0.2139 0.3596 Miles to Washington D.C. -0.03442 0.0252 Zoning density -1.3419 *** 0.1743 Cropland_1997 (%) 1.1939 *** 0.2030 Pasture_1997 (%) 3.2922 *** 0.8071 Forest-1997 (%) 0.2419 0.1619 Wetland_1997 (%) -0.7950 0.5333 Soil flood susceptibility 1.3973 *** 0.4598 Soil slope medium + 0.1998 0.3555 Soil permeability medium + 0.2050 0.4243 Special habitat areas (%) 0.2051 0.8455 Estuarine (%) 4.5068 ** 1.8402 Preserved land within

1-mile index 0.9822 *** 0.3519 Acre * preserved within

1 mile -0.0008 0.0008 Acre * waterfront -0.0011 0.0015 Acre * wash. miles -0.00006 0.0001 Acres2(squared) 0.000002 0.000006 Wash D.C.miles2 -0.0002 0.0003 Preserved within 1 mile2 0.1555 ** 0.0667 Estuarine2 (%) -6.8795 4.1750 Zoningdensity2 0.1247 0.0825 Cropland_19972 (%) 0.0707 0.2248 Pasture_19972 (%) -1.6596 1.0676 Forest_19972 (%) 0.8342 *** 0.1590 Soil flood2 -4.4510 *** 0.5627 Soil slope medium+2 -1.1905 *** 0.3745 Special habitat areas2 (%) 0.0125 0.8485 Constant -5.3717 *** 0.6824 Number of obs 26,048 Note: Double asterisk (**) indicates statistical significance at the 0.05 level, and triple asterisk (***) indicates statistical significance at the 0.01 level. Table 2. Effect of Rural Legacy Designation on the Number of Acres Preserved, Rate of Preser-vation, and Number of Acres Conversion and Rate of Conversion Outcome Pre or Post # Treated Obs./ Variable RL Designation # Control Obs. Preserved acres Post-1997 696/6851 Preserved acres Pre-1998 683/6850 Preservation rate Post-1997 696/6851 Preservation rate Pre-1998 683/6850 Converted acres Post-1997 2153/23895 Conversion rate Post-1997 2153/23895 Outcome Kernal Normal Local Linear Variable BC ATT Biweight BC ATT

(Std. Err.) (Std. Err) Preserved acres 8.73 ** 8.97 **

(2.38) (2.39) Preserved acres 3.60 3.52

(2.79) (2.74) Preservation rate 0.071 ** 0.072 **

(0.018) (0.017) Preservation rate 0.047 ** 0.045 **

(0.016) (0.016) Converted acres 0.019 0.032

(0.28) (0.27) Conversion rate -0.01 -0.008

(0.013) (0.012) Note: Double asterisk (**) indicates statistical significance at the 0.05 level.