Economics and ecology of managing emerging infectious
animal diseases.
by Horan, Richard D.^Fenichel, Eli P.
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(1) Dobson and Foufopoulos (2001) define EIDs as infectious
diseases that are increasing in prevalence, spatial range, or number of
host types. Most are not newly evolved but occur historically in only a
few populations and are exotic to recently invaded populations.
(2) There is no recovered population in SI models, implying that
vaccination is not an option. This is the case for many EIDs because
vaccines: (a) must be developed for particular disease strains and so
may be ineffective against new outbreaks: (b) often only protect against
clinical signs of the disease and not the disease itself, making it
harder to detect an actual outbreak; and (c) can cause inoculated
animals to test positive for the disease, risking sanctions by trading
partners (e.g., USDA-APHIS 2002).
(3) The [R.sub.0] = 1 criterion is often discussed for unmanaged
populations. In this case the result that invasion cannot occur when
host density combinations result in [R.sub.0] < 1 should not be
interpreted as a policy prescription because harvest mortality is not
explicit in the model.
(4) The pathogen is likely to be introduced first into a single
host population, but disease transmission in our model is such that the
pathogen would be introduced into the second host population at the next
instant. Because of this, we simplify matters and assume both hosts are
initially infected, so as to not worry about which is infected first.
(5) Infected animals are unobservable, so detection and response
likely occur after T. For simplicity we ignore this delay, but note that
delay in switching from prevention to control: (a) will depend on
monitoring effort, which will also be endogenously determined, and (b)
will likely increase the incentives to invest in prevention.
Richard D. Horan is Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural
Economics, and Eli P. Fenichel is Research Assistant, Department of
Fisheries and Wildlife, both at Michigan State University.
Funding was provided by the Economic Research Service-USDA
cooperative agreement number 58-7000-6-0084 through ERS's Program
of Research on the Economics of Invasive Species Management (PREISM),
and by NRI, USDA, CSREES, grant #2006-55204-17459. The views expressed
here are the authors'.
This article was presented in a principal paper session at the AAEA
annual meeting (Portland, OR, July 2007). The articles in these sessions
are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process.
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