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Daniel G. De La Torte Ugarte is Associate Professor and Burton C. English and Kim Jensen are Professors at the University of Tennessee, Department of Agricultural Economics, 302 Morgan Hall, Knoxville, TN 37996-4518.

This study was partially funded by The Governor's Ethanol Coalition and the National Commission on Energy Policy.

This article was presented in a principal paper session at the AAEA annual meeting (Portland. OR, July 2007). The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process. Table 1. Ethanol Production from Feedstocks under the ETH60, ETHCA, and ETHCAD Scenarios

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Billions of Gallons of Ethanol Corn Grain

ETH60CACD 10.00 15.93 10.78 9.23 8.90

ETH60CA 10.00 9.60 9.15 8.84 8.78

ETH60 10.00 12.96 14.09 14.09 14.09 Wood Residues

ETH60CACD 0.00 1.62 3.77 4.40 5.51

ETH60CA 0.00 4.23 3.75 4.51 5.15

ETH60 0.00 3.63 2.33 4.31 4.54 Wheat Straw

ETH60CACD 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.97 1.77

ETH60CA 0.00 0.55 0.41 1.15 1.70

ETH60 0.00 0.26 0.01 0.97 1.14 Corn Stover

ETH60CACD 0.00 0.00 0.01 5.69 12.10

ETH60CA 0.00 1.82 0.01 8.37 10.76

ETH60 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.91 8.88 Dedicated Energy Crop

ETH60CACD 0.00 0.00 14.40 24.81 32.10

ETH60CA 0.00 3.56 16.66 22.36 34.01

ETH60 0.00 3.40 13.69 19.93 31.71 Total Production

ETH60CACD 10.00 17.56 29.41 45.08 60.37

ETH60CA 10.00 19.77 29.97 45.22 60.39

ETH60 10.00 20.25 30.11 45.20 60.35 Note: ETH60 assumes commercial availability of cellulose-to-ethanol technology by 2012 and the use of corn grain is kept at near production capacity of ethanol plants. ETH60CA allows the corn grain to ethanol industry with cellulose-to-ethanol technology introduction in 2012 (ETH60CA). ETH60CACD delays cellulose-to-ethanol technology until 2015, and the corn grain-based ethanol industry is allowed to adjust. Table 2. Crop Price Impacts Compared with Baseline by Scenario

Changes in Crop Prices from Baseline

Corn Wheat

($/bushel) ($/bushel)

ETH60 ETH60 ETH60 ETH60 Year CACD CA ETH60 CACD CA ETH60 2010 0.86 0.86 0.89 0.11 0.11 0.11 2015 2.05 0.38 0.69 0.46 0.19 0.32 2020 0.19 -0.06 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.07 2025 -0.15 -0.14 -0.04 -0.07 -0.06 0.01 2030 0.59 0.52 0.62 0.36 0.36 0.53

Changes in Crop Prices from Baseline

Soybeans Cotton

($/bushel) ($/pound)

ETH60 ETH60 ETH60 ETH60 Year CACD CA ETH60 CACD CA ETH60 2010 0.75 0.75 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 1.42 0.65 1.49 0.02 0.04 0.04 2020 0.75 0.81 0.97 0.03 0.03 0.03 2025 0.54 0.55 0.98 0.03 0.02 0.03 2030 0.89 0.91 1.23 0.02 0.02 0.02 Note: ETH60 assumes commercial availability of cellulose-to-ethanol technology by 2012 and the use of corn grain is kept at near production capacity of ethanol plants. ETH60CA allows the corn grain to ethanol industry with cellulose-to-ethanol technology introduction in 2012 (ETH60CA). ETI I60CACD delays cellulose-to-ethanol technology until 2015, and the corn grain-based ethanol industry is allowed to adjust.