Assessing the nuclear threat; Richard L. Russell reviews The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor.

While Langewiesche's new work has a great "hook," it offers little new insight into Pakistan's role in Abdul Qadeer (A.Q.) Khan's aid and abetment of nuclear weapons proliferation. Moreover, it is largely silent on the danger that Pakistani nuclear weapons might, in the midst of political chaos, slip into al-Qaeda's murderous hands.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

The book starts off with a general discussion of the problem of states acquiring nuclear weapons after the Cold War nuclear standoff. It focuses on the new post-9/11 dimension of nuclear weapons proliferation--the danger of non-state actors such as al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons. Langewiesche develops an interesting description of the tradeoffs for non-state actors in the stealing and operational handling of plutonium and highly enriched uranium from existing stockpiles around the world (especially from Russia) to use as the fissile material for nuclear weapons. He then devotes a chapter to Pakistan's infamous A. Q. Khan's role in fueling--literally and figuratively--nuclear weapons proliferation. The book ably traces Khan's contribution to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, which largely occurred in his development of centrifuge capabilities to enrich uranium to weapons grade. Khan offered his expertise and entrepreneurship to eager buyers in Libya, Iran, and North Korea as a short-cut alternative to the traditional bottom-up development of indigenous uranium enrichment capabilities.

Langewiesche is rightfully skeptical that A.Q. Khan was a "rogue" operating on his own without approval from Pakistan, but he does not uncover any compelling evidence of under-the-table deals and kickbacks. The best Langewiesche can do is to write in the concluding chapter that "A. Q. Khan had allies in high places who, rather than ignoring his activities, were directly involved and almost certainly approved. In Pakistan this can only mean the generals, including some of those currently in power, and to a certain but unknowable degree Musharraf himself." After widespread exposure of Khan's proliferation business, Musharraf only made Khan apologize for his nefarious activities before whisking him off into house arrest, away from any questioning regarding his global nuclear proliferation operations and collusion with Pakistani military and security services.

Langewiesche also pays admiring tribute to a fellow journalist and nuclear technology expert, Mark Hibbs, who has covered breaking stories over the years for specialized nuclear trade publications. Hibbs has used an array of public information to piece together major trends in global nuclear weapons proliferation--including Pakistan's assistance to Iran's uranium enrichment program--well ahead of government intelligence agencies. American intelligence agencies can learn a great deal from this section, since they chronically suffer from inexperienced analysts following subjects with too little time and substantive insight. Interesting as this chapter may be, however, it might strike some readers as tangential filler.

Many of the book's pages are sprinkled with Langewiesche's conversations in Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan. These anecdotes are important tools for escaping the mindsets and commonly accepted wisdom of the United States. Indeed, books by well-traveled and street-savvy journalist are invaluable for understanding the international realities that can elude scholars publishing narrower and more specialized studies. In this sense, journalistic books can be more effective than works written for consumption by colleagues in the academy, policymakers locked under the tyranny of official talking points in government-to-government exchanges, or intelligence analysts cloistered in narrow bureaucratic confines of responsibility without direct access to foreign players.

On that note, the protection of sensitive sources with anonymity is a fair journalistic practice. Yet Langewiesche offers only shallow descriptions of his sources. To take one example, he examines the purported nuclear material black-market trade that runs through Turkey, which at times is broken up by Turkish police arrests. He describes this by saying, "From distant America--among professors and in the policy circles of Washington--their arrests seem to signal the existence of a dangerous trade, but from up close within the bazaar they mostly just add to a sense that for now even Tel Aviv remains safe. Or so the Israeli told me." But is this Israeli an expert nuclear physicist, a senior intelligence official, or a shawarma sandwich vendor? Langewiesche's writing gives readers no way of knowing or gauging the legitimacy of his sources.

The book also comes up short on standards for scholarship. It has no references for conversions, interviews, or research materials, making it impossible for readers to retrace Langewiesche's footsteps. Nor does it have a bibliography or index. One might counter that this is a journalistic account and should not be held up against academic standards. But other journalists have more ably tackled the challenge of writing engaging analysis of weapons of mass destruction proliferation while offering extensive documentation for the benefit of their readers.

In terms of content, the book raises some tantalizing tidbits regarding Saudi Arabia, but fails to follow them up with substantive exploration. Langewiesche mentions that Saudi Arabia is suspected of funding A.Q. Khan, most likely with the expectation of a return. Later in the book, he writes, "We discussed the funding of Khan's laboratory over the years, and in general terms the extent to which Saudi Arabia and other countries had contributed to it." The reader may be forgiven at that point for wondering what discussion he is referencing. Langewiesche only makes passing mention of rumors of Saudi collaboration, and he offers no documentation or sources of these often rumored, but never confirmed, suspicions. Langewiesche also fails to explain the implications of a potential Pakistani-Saudi nuclear pact. This is a significant omission because some observers have speculated that Islamabad and Riyadh might have come to a clandestine arrangement whereby Pakistan--in exchange for Saudi financial subsidies to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program--would provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear deterrent in a future regional contingency.

The book suffers from large blind spots on the dangers posed by more nation-states gaining nuclear weapons in the future. The reader would look in vain for analysis or discussion of what would happen if Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt were to join the nuclear weapons club. Some scholars, most notably Kenneth Waltz, argue that the slow spread of nuclear weapons would greatly reduce the chances of inter-state war because leaders would recognize that war with nuclear weapons would be disastrous for all participants. Others, however, argue that the proliferation of nuclear weapons would likely push countries to put nuclear forces on hair triggers during crises, thereby increasing the risks of future conflicts pitted with the use of nuclear weapons. This is especially true in the Middle East, with its tight geographic confines and long history of warfare. Though this debate is critically important, it is not even mentioned in the book.

On a final note, Langewiesche offers excellent accounts of the rampant corruption that permeates Pakistani society. A reader should therefore come away from the book with unease about the command, control, and security of the country's nuclear weapons arsenal. By his account, Pakistani nuclear stores are guarded by corrupt Pakistani military personnel, which may include potential al-Qaeda sympathizers. Yet Langewiesche does not proffer scenarios for how al-Qaeda would go about bribing or snatching fissile material or even a handful of nuclear weapons. This is a topic ripe for journalistic investigative reporting.

Despite these shortcomings, the book does a public service by sounding an alarm over the risks of non-state actors acquiring nuclear weapons. At the end of the day, though, the work just scratches the surface of the formidable dangers and challenges that will face the international community in coming decades.

RICHARD L. RUSSELL teaches security studies at the National Defense University and Georgetown University. The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor is by William Langewiesche (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2007).