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NO RISK, NO REWARD. IT'S A PLAIN-spoken maxim that Richard
Marshall Jr. lives by. The U.S. Navy commander, who currently lives in
Alexandria, Virginia, and works at the Pentagon, invests in mutual funds
and seeks to supercharge his holdings.
His personal situation allows him to take some risks. He's
single and without major financial pressures. He doesn't have to
worry about house or car payments eating into his cash flow. A naval
officer since 1991, he's within sight of 20 years of service, which
will entitle him to a lifelong pension. Moreover, Joe E. Outlaw,
president of San Diego-based PenTrust Financial Services and
Marshall's financial planner, says that "Richard has the kind
of personality that allows him to sleep at night, even if the market is
down. He knows he's in for the long term."
Marshall has followed Outlaw's suggestion that he reduce his
exposure to domestic stock funds, real estate funds, and bond funds.
"My portfolio now includes 55% in international funds and 25% in
global funds," Marshall says. (Global funds invest in U.S. and
foreign companies while international funds focus solely on offshore
stocks.)
He's decided not to sit on the sideline because of market
turbulence. But a number of investors have become increasingly cautious
due to economic uncertainty. With consumer prices up 4.1% in 2007,
inflation was pushed up by the largest amount in 17 years. Now the
prospect of recession looms as inflation threatens to rise even further.
Oil prices spike as the value of the dollar slides. Housing prices
continue to plummet as mortgage defaults increase. Investors witnessed a
sharp downturn in the stock market in the first weeks of this year--the
S&P 500 declined 6.1% in January alone.
There's every indication that the market in the coming months
will prove to be even more tumultuous. For instance, the Chicago Board
Options Exchange's Volatility Index, which measures market swings,
roughly doubled from early 2007 to early 2008. For instance, in a mere
three months, from October 2007 to January 2008, the Dow dropped by
14.5%. If you were sitting on a $200,000 nest egg last October, one that
moved in sync with the Dow, you'd suddenly be facing the future
with only $171,000 to tap.
These factors led Marshall, 39, to tilt his portfolio sharply to
non-U.S, holdings. In fact, his largest position is now in Oppenheimer
Developing Markets Fund (ODMAX), which is classified as an emerging
markets fund. Such vehicles are considered among the riskiest of all
stock funds because they invest in countries that may have light stock
market regulation, political turmoil, hyperinflation, and currency
devaluations.
For taking such chances, investors may be well rewarded. That
turned out to be the case for Marshall, who saw his fired, which invests
heavily in Brazilian and Indian equities, return nearly 34% in 2007.
"My other international and global stocks also did well," he
says. To achieve his lofty returns for his portfolio--which is worth
$200,000--the top gun doesn't own a single bond fund and only 5% of
his holdings is in cash.
Marshall was willing to pursue aggressive strategies to realize
sizable returns. But that doesn't mean you should approach
investing the same way. To evaluate where you stand, follow market
activity closely, determine your risk tolerance level, and seek solid
financial advice. BLACK ENTERPRISE has also developed The Moneywise
100--our semiannual guide to 100 mutual funds that merit your attention.
Working with Chicago-based mutual fund research firm Morningstar,
we've identified funds based on criteria including three-and
five-year returns in the top quartile of their respective categories
and, for the first time, indicated risk ratings for each.
MORE VOLATILITY
Even though recent events have reminded many that investing can be
a risky business, the outlook is not entirely gloomy. The stock market
has had many corrections and crashes over the years, yet investors who
tolerated the downs have enjoyed the ups: Long term, stocks have
delivered much higher returns than bonds or bank accounts. For a quarter
of a century--from late 1982 to 2007--economic historians maintain that
the stock market has produced a total return of more than 2,000%.
In fact, last year turned out to be a good time to take certain
types of risks. International stock funds returned nearly 16%, on
average, while domestic stock funds gained about 6%. Among foreign stock
funds, the leaders were specialized categories such as Latin America (up
46%), Pacific/Asia, excluding Japan (48%), and diversified emerging
markets (37%). Japanese stock funds, on the other hand, lost more than
9%. The narrower a fund's focus, the more risk investors assume.
Sector funds also demonstrated this risk-reward tradeoff. Top
performers included those with holdings in natural resources (37%),
precious metals (23%), and utilities (20%), while investors were
punished if they held funds specializing in financial firms (-12%) or
real estate (-15%).
TEST YOUR TOLERANCE
These days many investors are seeking the safety of money market
funds. "There are three main reasons for investing in a money
market fund," says Dail St. Claire, president of New York-based
Williams Capital Management Trust. "They are preservation of
capital, liquidity, and generating income."
In today's environment, the first two are far more important,
according to St. Claire. That is, protecting against loss and having
access to your money should be prime concerns, rather than seeking an
extra quarter-point of yield.
"Do your homework," St. Claire says. "Before
investing in a money market fund, read the prospectus as well as
statement of additional information, or SAI, and the one-page fact
sheet. See if the fund is identified as a '2a7' fund. Those
funds are subject to federal regulations on portfolio maturity, credit
quality, diversification, and liquidity."
Overall, putting together a mutual fund portfolio that matches your
risk threshold can prove challenging. First, determine how much market
turbulence you can stomach. You can take a risk tolerance quiz online at
BlackEnterprise.com. "If you work with a financial adviser, you
should go through this kind of exercise before making any
investments," says Outlaw.
FIND THE RIGHT MIX OF FUNDS
Experts say most investors have moderate or slightly
lower-than-moderate risk tolerance levels. Once you have some idea of
whether you are Bold Bart or Nervous Nellie, you can begin the process
of constructing your mutual fired portfolio. David Kathman, a fund
analyst at Morningstar, says you should first determine the risk of
various fund categories.
"Risk is often equated with volatility," says Kathman,
"and the most common way to measure the volatility of an investment
is standard deviation." In essence, standard deviation reflects
historic swings in investment returns. The wider the swings, the greater
the risk investors will face. So, historically, a large blend fund--a
mix of large-company growth and value stocks--would provide far less
risk than specialty funds, such as those that invest in precious metals.
During the past five years, however, precious metals funds returned
nearly 22% a year on average, twice as much as large blend funds.
Therefore, risk-takers were rewarded.
A more audacious investor, then, might start off with a core
holding of large-company domestic and international stock funds.
Smaller-company funds, specialized sector funds, and emerging markets
funds could be added, in search of higher returns. Fixed-income
investments would be virtually nonexistent in his or her portfolio.
What about investors with very little taste for risk?
"I'd recommend a large allocation to bond funds," says
Outlaw. All fixed-income investments--including those that hold
low-rated junk bonds--tend to provide more safety than any stock fund
category.
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Once you've decided on your mix of fund categories, the next
step is to pick funds within each class. Always focus on past
performance, expense ratios, asset turnover ratios, and the tenure of
fund managers, among other key elements. Another risk gauge: five- or
10-year returns.
Morningstar's Kathman also suggests taking a critical view of
portfolio diversification. For instance, a fund with 30 holdings might
prove to be more volatile than a vehicle with 50 stocks.
One way to size up the best funds is to review our Moneywise 100
listing; we have taken into account all of the aforementioned factors.
As a rule, however, evaluate risk for yourself before investing a single
dollar to determine if a fund will provide the ups and downs of a
rollercoaster ride or keep you on solid ground.
The Moneywise 100
Ticker 5-year 5-Year Expense
Fund Name Symbol Return Risk Rating Ratio
Large Growth
Columbia Marsico NMYAX 21.7% Above Avg 1.01%
21st Century Z
Amana Trust Growth AMAGX 19.7 Average 1.35
American Funds New ANFFX 15.9 Above Avg 0.76
Economy F
American Funds GFAFX 15.0 Below Avg 0.61
Growth Fund of
Amer F
Transamerica Premier TEQUX 14.9 Average 1.15
Equity Inv
Jennison Blend Z PEQZX 14.7 Average 0.64
AIM Summit P SMMIX 14.7 Average 0.92
Excelsior Large Cap UMLGX 14.5 Above Avg 1.20
Growth
Waddell & Reed Adv WAVYX 13.9 Above Avg 0.86
COPYRIGHT 2008 Earl G. Graves Publishing Co.,
Inc. Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.
Copyright 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights
reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.