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How far to the border? The extent and impact of cross - border casual cigarette smuggling.


by Lovenheim, Michael F.
National Tax Journal • March, 2008 •

(0.06) (0.06) Percentage some college 0.19 0.19

(0.04) (0.05) Percentage associates degree 0.07 0.07

(0.03) (0.03) Percentage BA 0.16 0.17

(0.05) (0.05) Percentage graduate school 0.08 0.09

(0.04) (0.04) Percentage work 0.65 0.65

(0.06) (0.06) Percentage unemployed 0.03 0.04

(0.02) (0.02) Source: CPS Tobacco Supplements. Means include individuals living only in an identified MSA. Standard deviations of each variable are in parentheses. TABLE 6 IV ESTIMATES OF CIGARETTE DEMAND MODELS, 1992-2002 Native American Reservations Included?: No No Independent Variable (i) (ii)

Panel A: Intensive Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Daily Cigarette

Consumption of Smokers Log real home state price -0.148 ** -0.058 ([PI].sub.1]) (0.023) (0.048) Difference in log price ([PI].sub.2]) Difference in log price squared ([PI].sub.3]) Log distance Log distance x difference in log price ([PI].sub.4]) Year -0.013 **

(0.004)

Panel B: Extensive Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Smoking

Participation Rate Log real home state price -0.210 ** -0.176 ** ([PI].sub.1]) (0.030) (0.061) Difference in log price ([PI].sub.2]) Difference in log price squared ([PI].sub.3]) Log distance Log distance x difference in log price ([PI].sub.4]) Year -0.005

(0.006)

Panel C: Full Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Daily Cigarette

Consumption of All

Individuals Log real home state price -0.437 ** -0.326 ** ([PI].sub.1]) (0.046) (0.093) Difference in log price ([PI].sub.2]) Difference in log price squared ([PI].sub.3]) Log distance Log distance x difference in log price ([PI].sub.4]) Year -0.017 **

(0.009) Native American Reservations Included?: No No Independent Variable (iii) (iv)

Panel A: Intensive Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Daily Cigarette

Consumption of Smokers Log real home state price -0.175 ** -0.115 * ([PI].sub.1]) (0.022) (0.059) Difference in log price 0.882 * 0.767 ([PI].sub.2]) (0.494) (0.481) Difference in log price 0.449 0.546 squared ([PI].sub.3]) (0.818) (0.808) Log distance 0.003 0.004

(0.007) (0.007) Log distance x difference -0.226 ** -0.213 ** in log price ([PI].sub.4]) (0.080) (0.079) Year -0.007

(0.005)

Panel B: Extensive Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Smoking

Participation Rate Log real home state price -0.231 ** -0.227 ** ([PI].sub.1]) (0.029) (0.084) Difference in log price 1.059 1.051 ([PI].sub.2]) (0.673) (0.662) Difference in log price -0.393 -0.388 squared ([PI].sub.3]) (1.049) (1.036) Log distance 0.004 0.004

(0.008) (0.008) Log distance x difference -0.211 ** -0.210 ** in log price ([PI].sub.4]) (0.108) (0.106) Year -0.001

(0.006)

Panel C: Full Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Daily Cigarette

Consumption of All

Individuals Log real home state price -0.489 ** -0.457 ** ([PI].sub.1]) (0.045) (0.125) Difference in log price 2.547 ** 2.483 ** ([PI].sub.2]) (1.064) (1.044) Difference in log price 0.114 0.151 squared ([PI].sub.3]) (1.772) (1.703) Log distance 0.011 0.011

(0.011) (0.012) Log distance x difference -0.584 ** -0.576 ** in log price ([PI].sub.4]) (0.161) (0.158) Year -0.004

(0.012) Native American Reservations Included?: Yes Yes Independent Variable (v) (vi)

Panel A: Intensive Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Daily Cigarette

Consumption of Smokers Log real home state price -0.181 ** -0.098 ([PI].sub.1]) (0.022) (0.071) Difference in log price 0.748 * 0.690 ([PI].sub.2]) (0.452) (0.445) Difference in log price 0.369 0.412 squared ([PI].sub.3]) (0.786) (0.772) Log distance 0.003 0.003

(0.009) (0.019) Log distance x difference -0.180 ** -0.177 ** in log price ([PI].sub.4]) (0.091) (0.090) Year -0.006

(0.006)

Panel B: Extensive Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Smoking

Participation Rate Log real home state price -0.229 ** -0.295 ** ([PI].sub.1]) (0.034) (0.104) Difference in log price 0.836 0.913 ([PI].sub.2]) (0.633) (0.644) Difference in log price -0.639 -0.128 squared ([PI].sub.3]) (0.960) (0.122) Log distance -0.015 -0.016

(0.011) (0.011) Log distance x difference -0.12 -0.208 * in log price ([PI].sub.4]) (0.121) (0.128) Year 0.009

(0.010)

Panel C: Full Margin

Dependent Variable = Log

Mean MSA Daily Cigarette

Consumption of All

Individuals Log real home state price -0.444 ** -0.527 ** ([PI].sub.1]) (0.052) (0.154) Difference in log price 2.171 ** 2.269 ** ([PI].sub.2]) (0.892) (0.894) Difference in log price -0.416 -0.435 squared ([PI].sub.3]) (1.391) (1.384) Log distance -0.01 -0.011

(0.016) (0.017) Log distance x difference -0.420 ** -0.430 ** in log price ([PI].sub.4]) (0.171) (0.173) Year 0.011


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COPYRIGHT 2008 National Tax Association Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.
Copyright 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.


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