Mapping out the credit crunch and its impact on real estate.

The recent credit crunch is having a noticeable effect on the real estate market both nationally and locally. The third quarter 2007 Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's House Price Index (HPI) indicated a 1.8 percent national home price appreciation, which is 0.4 percent lower than the third quarter 2006. That is the first seasonally adjusted percentage decline since 1994.

Despite the national decline, the Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) HPI for the same period indicated an appreciation of 3.4 percent. Although MSAs in Florida, California, and Michigan have seen notable depreciation, markets in the Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, Texas, and North Carolina are still appreciating well above the national rates. (1)

Foreclosures filings for the U.S. were up 75 percent from the 2006 to 2007 calendar year with fourth quarter filings up 86 percent. Shelby County's filings were 2.7 times the national average. (2) Bear, Stearns Inc., predicts the foreclosure starts for 2008 will reach 1.8 million, about three times the annual average prior to 2006. The spike foreclosures should occur between the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. By the end of the second quarter of 2009 it is expected that 90 percent of the existing subprime loans will be refinanced, modified, or defaulted. (3)

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(1) Corinne Russell and Stefanie Mullin. "House Prices Weaken Further in Most Recent Quarter; First Quarterly Decline for U.S. Since 1994." United States Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. 29 Nov. 2007.30 Jan. 2008 .

(2) "U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases 75 Percent in 2007." RealtyTrac. 30 Jan 2008 .

(3) Dale Westhoff and V.S. Srinivasan. "The Impact of Rising Foreclosure Supply on the Housing Market." 30 Jan 2008 .

Text and Maps by Ryan B. Hanson, GIS Services Programmer, Center for Real Estate Research, Sparks Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Fogelman College of Business & Economics, The University of Memphis

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