Scenario had the WGA's strike continued.

So, the WGA strike is over, there is a new three-year deal in place, and a new scale of residual payments for DVD and non-linear broadcasting has been agreed upon. But what would have happened had the strike dragged on into the summer? VideoAge's Dom Serafini asked me, a buyer, to examine this doomsday scenario, and determine what the effects would have been for distributors and international broadcasters.

When the strike began in November 2007, the studios had completed approximately half of the 2007/2008 season of episodes. For those U.S. series that international broadcasters were planning to put into primetime slots, there would be a temporary stay of execution, but once these new episodes were played out, the situation would become critical.

Unlike most domestic drama productions commissioned by international broadcasters, the U.S. studios' and broadcasters' shows come in bountiful batches of 22 episodes per season once a show has proven itself successful. This allows schedulers to place a U.S. series into a slot for 22 consecutive weeks.

In the U.S. there is a tradition of running reruns sprinkled amongst the new episodes during the fall and winter season. Thus, between September and the following May, 22 new episodes are played over a 36-week season. This does not generally apply outside of the U.S., except in Canada. Most international broadcasters prefer to run 22 new episodes consecutively, and follow that with a brand new series of 22 episodes in the same slot.

So, while U.S. audiences were declining during the strike, American viewers were at least used to seeing reruns in December and January.

Most schedules need drama series to attract loyal and upscale audiences. Dramas are key viewing appointments. The production values of a drama outweigh those of any other form of programming.

Without an ongoing supply of U.S. dramas international broadcasters would have had a number of choices: Buy repeats, off-net or library series from the U.S. majors; buy drama from other countries; commission cheap local programming.

Option One would mean inevitable and significant declines in ratings. Dramas in particular, don't repeat well in primetime. Library dramas can play a part in daytime television but would not work in peak hours. Finally, off-net material, which has not yet been licensed, is probably not worth picking up.

Option two would involve identifying dramas with sufficient volumes from other countries. Distributors from the likes of the U.K., Australia and Canada would definitely benefit, as would some from mainland Europe and Latin America. In some cases this would have been the first time many broadcasters would have scheduled non-U.S, dramas in primetime. These dramas would cost less and would be packaged with less material, thus offering a real alternative to buying from the U.S. majors.

The final option is one which more mainstream and bigger broadcasters would choose. Local productions tends to rate extremely well. Over time, successful local programming would replace U.S. series, which could struggle to re-establish themselves in broadcasters' peak schedules.

In all three scenarios the Hollywood studios' international distribution businesses would suffer terribly. There was a time until fairly recently that feature film slates were the main driver of packages from the U.S. majors. But nowadays drama series have become the leverage around which deals have been struck.

Now that the strike is over, a more compact pilot season is up and running. The sheer scale of previous pilot commissions will probably never return. And the L.A. Screenings is back where it belongs, immediately following the networks' fall announcements. U.S. series will once again form part of most international broadcasters' schedules.

Dermot Horan is director of Broadcast and Acquisitions for RTE, Ireland