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SANTRAUKA

UZSIENIO INVESTICIJOS IR BRAZILIJOS NEKILNOJAMOJO TURTO RINKA

Joao da Rocha LIMA Jr., Claudio Tavares de ALENCAR

Siame straipsnyje aptariami pagrindiniai Brazilijos nekilnojamojo turto rinkos aspektai, siekiant nustatyti, ar tipinis Amerikos nekilnojamojo turto investuotojas noretu isigyti Brazilijos biuryl pastatu portfelj. Straipsnyje akcentuojama: 1--kontroles ribos, lyginant investavima, kai paskolos paverciamos vertybiniais popieriais, budingoje Amerikos nekilnojamojo turto fondo (REIT) strukturoje su Brazilijos sprendimu pagal Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario (FII); 2--investiciju kokybes bruozai Brazilijos rinkoje pagal biuru pastato prototipa; 3--investiciju j Brazilijos rinkel per FII (rizikos ir pelningumo) lyginimas sugretinus su veikiancia REIT (biuru sektorius) JAV rinkoje. Darome isvada, kad investiciniai doleriai, FII iskeisti i realus (Brazilijos valiuta) su, Triple A" biuru pastato portfeliu, San Paulo rinkoje duos metines pajamas ir papildomol graza, didesne uz Amerikos REIT investicija. Kai scenarijus itin agresyvus ir vyraujantis kursas atskiriamas nuo rinkos kainu bendrojo indekso (IGP-M) svyravimu, pajamos generuojamos nestabiliai, ir imama 300 tasku rizikos lygio Brazilijoje marza, matome, kad musu analizuotame segmente investicijos Brazilijos rinkoje duoda geresnius rezultatus nei analogiska investicija Amerikos rinkoje.

(1) Using the current exchange rate of 1 US$ = 1.95 Reais (R$)--source: Brazil Central Bank (www.bcb.gov.br)

(2) In a simplified way, by dividing the EMC for the number of the REITs, only to give a idea of the Brazilian market size in relation to the American one.

(3) By using a Monte Carlo simulation approach and considering the lowest confidence interval border of the sample.

(4) For the proposals of this study, we assumed that the Monte Carlo simulation is sufficient to evaluate risks.

(5) This rate is even higher than the superior border of the con. dence interval obtained in a Monte Carlo approach when applied to the Of. ce REITs historic performance.

(6) Obtained by a Monte Carlo approach, considering the lowest confidence interval border of the sample of both, yield and rate of return, when fluctuations are made to income generation and exchange rate in each building of the portfolio.

Jodo da Rocha LIMA Jr. (1) and Claudio Tavares de ALENCAR (2)

(1) Department of Civil Construction and Engineering, Polytechnic School--University of Sdo Paulo, Av. Prof. Almeida Prado, travessa 2 n. 83. Cidade Universitaria--05508-900.

Sao Paulo, Brasil

E-mail: rocha.lima@poli.usp.br

(2) Department of Civil Construction and Engineering, Polytechnic School--University of Sdo Paulo, Av. Prof. Almeida Prado, travessa 2 n. 83. Cidade Universitaria--05508-900.

Sao Paulo, Brasil

E-mail: claudio.alencar@poli.usp.br Table 1. Scenario for the operational cycle--rental prices

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Rental prices 68,00 72,00 75,00 in the market Adjustment 0,850 0,950 1,000 Rental prices 57,80 68,40 75,00 considered for the prototype

Year 4 Year 5 Fluctuation

and so on of the revenue Rental prices 77,00 80,00 in the market Adjustment 1,000 1,000 Rental prices 77,00 80,00 -8% considered for +4% the prototype Rental prices (monthly prices / [m.sup.2] GLA, in R$ mar-08) Table 2. Scenario for the operational cycle--occupation, costs, maintenance and upgrade

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Deterministic scenarios with fluctuations Market parameters 65% 80% 85% Occupation rate 75% 85% 95% considered (rented area / GLA) Market penetration 1,154 1,063 1,118 result Management costs 6,0% of the FII (% of the revenue) Fluctuation (points) +2.0 +2.0 +2.0

-0.0 -0.0 -0.0 Vacant spaces cost 12,80 (R$/[m.sup.2] GLA/month) Maintenance and upgrade 3,5% (% of the revenue)

Year 4 Year 5 Factor of

and so on fluctuation

considered

Deterministic scenarios with fluctuations Market parameters 87% 90% Occupation rate 100% 100% - 9 points considered (rented + 0 points area / GLA) Market penetration 1,150 1,112 result Management costs of the FII (% of the revenue) Fluctuation (points) +3.0 +3.0

-0.0 -0.0 Vacant spaces cost -5% (R$/[m.sup.2] GLA/month) +10% Maintenance and upgrade (% of the revenue) Table 3. Scenario for the operational inflation and exchange rate

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Annual inflation rate, 6,0% 5,5% 5,0% IGP-M Fluctuation (points) +1.0 +0.5 +1.0

-0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Annual rate of 7,0% 7,0% 1,0% detachment from the exchange rate Fluctuation (points) +1.0 +1.0 +1.0

-2.0 -2.0 -0.5

Year 4 Year 5

and so on Annual inflation rate, 5,0% 5,0% IGP-M Fluctuation (points) +1.0 +1.0

-0.5 -0.5 Annual rate of 1,0% 1,0% detachment from the exchange rate Fluctuation (points) +1.0 +1.0

-0.5 -0.5 Table 4. Balance sheet--acquisition, securitization and selling

Referential

scenario Total of the investment 609.000 Acquisition price 600.000 Costs for structuring 9.000 the FII Value to securitize 795.419 Rate of return 10,00% Offering costs -38.180 (offering and promotion, marketing = 4.80%) Profit 148.239

Hedged Offering

value price Total of the investment Acquisition price Costs for structuring the FII Value to securitize 755.763 775.787

-5,0% -2,5% Rate of return 10,58% 10,28% Offering costs -36.276 -37.237 (offering and promotion, marketing = 4.80%) Profit 110.487 129.55