Education enrollment numbers are a significant matter.

During the thirteen years of my professional career spent at the State House, very few policy matters intrigued me more than the development of the state budget, and the school funding formula in particular. Before voting on each version of the state budget bill, legislators were certain to review the school funding formula printouts to determine whether the school corporations in their legislative districts were to receive increased or decreased funding. Generally speaking, and to over-simplify the school funding formula, increased or decreased funding was predicated on the enrollment trends of each school corporation. Thus, enrollment projections are a matter of serious concern for schools.

When looking at state population trends through 2040, it is projected that the total population of school-aged children (defined as age 5 to 19) will remain relatively constant, with only a slight increase of approximately 40,009 students. This projection in and of itself will not alter public school funding in Indiana in any significant manner. Over time, school corporations that lose or gain students will certainly lose or gain funding through the formula--a matter of great significance locally. However, at the state level, population trends that reflect the growing diversity of the student population in terms of family income, students with disabilities, and limited-English proficiency (LEP), to name a few, are just as important to consider. For example, the school funding formula includes a complexity index that generates additional funds to school corporations that have higher percentages of students from low-income families {as measured by the percent of the student population that qualifies for free and reduced-price meals). Additionally, school corporations that have increasing populations of special needs or LEP students (a population that grew statewide 408 percent from 1994-95 to 2004-05) are likely to receive additional categorical funding under present-day state funding priorities.

Yes, student enrollment trends are matters of high significance in K-12 education in Indiana. However, a singular focus on enrollment trends would understate the importance of this age cohort on the economic vitality of the state. To ensure long-term economic development and job growth in the Hoosier state, we must also pay careful attention to increasing the high school graduation rates, sustaining improvements in college attendance rates, and elevating college graduation rates. If the state can succeed in improving these achievement outcomes, we should find substantial growth in the overall literacy and educational attainment levels of our adult population. Ultimately, this will lead to a lower reliance on public assistance programs, a larger tax base, and a skilled workforce to grow jobs--a winning proposition for Indiana!

Terry Spradlin, MPA: Associate Director for Education Policy, Center for Evaluation and Education Policy, Indiana University