The Basra Factor.

Ten months after Maliki sent troops to restore calm to the blighted city of Basra in the south, the Jan. 31 election will test whether he can convert his military successes into a lasting political victory. The stakes are high: the winner gains control of the major oil-producing centre and port, its economic lifeline to the world. But Maliki, who wants Basra under the jurisdiction of Baghdad's central government, faces a dizzying array of rivals, all fellow Shi'ites with different goals.

Shi'ite al-Fadhila al-Islamiya wants to break free of Baghdad and become a city state. The SIIC wants to create a nine-province "super region", with Basra its anchor, which could dwarf Baghdad in power and the party's ailing leader, Hakim, has once hinted that he wanted to turn this into a theocracy tied to Iran in one way or another.

The last local election, in 2005, sparked an ugly cycle of assassinations and violence, in which most political parties were implicated. The next election could either shatter or bolster the stability established since March. Norwegian historian Reidar Visser, an expert on the Shi'ite south, says: "The potential for violence is certainly there".

In the run-up to the vote, Maliki is busy manoeuvring. He has tapped local leaders to organise tribes into ICs to support of the central government. Under Maliki's order, the national government has funded $100m on reconstruction projects in Basra, by-passing the current provincial council headed by a Fadhila figure, Muhammad al-Wa'eli. The national government also has begun paying unemployment benefits in the province.

MP Haidar al-'Abadi of Maliki's Da'wa says: "I think Maliki will play a major role in Basra. People support and trust the central government more than local authorities". But the SIIC wants Basra to serve as an anchor of a Shi'ite-majority nine-state region in the south. Sadr's followers wish to reclaim their influence in Basra, which they dominated before the March offensive. But Basra Governor Wa'eli wishes to hold on to its privileges accrued in the last four years, notably its influence in the oil industry.

One of Maliki's point men in Basra is Abu Hazem al-Ta'ie, who heads an IC which mobilises local clans to serve the national government. His office in this vital port city directs his efforts to boost Baghdad's influence. His IC has hunted suspected Shi'ite fighters and documented corruption on reconstruction projects. In November, he organised rallies to support Maliki's SOFA with the US.

Ta'ie says: "We have discovered the nationalist spirit. We see [in Maliki] a strong man protecting the country, and the people have started to back him". Maliki wants to see the constitution amended to omit from it the clauses calling for federalism, a move strongly backed by the Sunni Arabs and secular Shi'ites. But, in a compromise, Maliki would let the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north to have administrative autonomy, while the Kurdish coalition is insisting on having federal powers.

In fact, the KRG has gone as far as exercising confederal powers in its territory, having its own flag, armed forces, foreign relations and visas for those other Iraqis visiting its region. Its ally, the SIIC, is slowly transforming itself into a secular party, with taqiyah helping it hide its sectarian nature as Turkey's ruling AKP does.

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