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This is not the first "Green Revolution," and it won't be the last. But, it may be the right time and place for the Green Revolution to make a meaningful change in the way American's live and conduct business. This may be the stage of the revolution that generates a critical mass of sustainable public and private support for everything green (or at least some things that are green). Finally, green industries may have arrived at the development stage that will allow them to capitalize on the technology revolution to move the nation toward more environmentally friendly consumption and production patterns.
It may also be the time that green technology projects for energy production and utilization become a reality. Energy independence was one of the most noted political promises of the new Obama administration. Green promises have been the historical property of the newly-empowered Democratic Party. The time and political support finally may be available to overcome industry objections and to promote policies that support infant energy industries. Given sufficient time and support, the new generation of energy producers will generate competition for the existing fossil fuel companies.
However, the market and political support for the Green Revolution may not be sustainable in the absence of continuously high energy prices, environmental disasters, and threats to the economic and political future of the country. With a new administration--cash strapped by the economic recession and saddled with a record debt burden--it seems unlikely that the financial support of the federal government will focus on the need to develop new jobs in unproven green industries. Given an intuitive resistance to bailing out failing industries like automobile producers, home producers, and retailers, it may be unrealistic to expect investors and the government to spend money on less well known and documented businesses.
Massive expenditures for the financial sector have compounded the multi-year drain from off-shore energy flows. The domino effect of declines in domestic markets has created an economic storm of unprecedented proportions in modern times. Not only are businesses with long traditions going bankrupt, they also are leaving massive holes in the fabrics of the national and international economies. The destruction of the domestic home market was highly contagious and quickly exposed the fragile state of the nation's economic structure. Clearly, the profit-driven motives that drove financial markets to new highs on the basis of newly-created internationally linked financial and insurance products proved to be unstable at best and dramatically sensitive to turmoil in the real estate sector.
Economists are not well known for being positive about the future. In fact the "dismal science" label is consistent with the real-world views of most economists. Therefore, it is difficult to see anyone opening the window for this new kid on the block. Can the Green Revolution find the money to expand in a market strangled with credit restrictions? Can the demand for Green Energy be sustained in the face of dramatically reduced oil prices? Can the new Obama administration maintain interest in alternative energy projects and environmental efforts when faced with rebuilding an economy struggling to rebound from one of the most serious recessions since the Great Depression? Will this be the time when great environmental projects gain traction in world markets and when the Green Revolution struggles to sustain its momentum in the U.S.? All these are questions that generate questions about the future of the Green Revolution.
Obviously, universities, young and old environmentalists, and small businesses will be the source of the creative fuel that will drive the Green Revolution forward. It seems likely that government will do little except provide lip service, minor policy changes, and some initial investments in second stage energy industries. If the Green Revolution has a chance to rise to the level of a major national goal that creates jobs and economic opportunities, many of these questions must be answered positively. Universities, environmental organizations, and small businesses must work together to overcome the lack of economic momentum that may exist in 2009 and 2010. Special attention must be paid to firmly establishing the economic importance of the role that the Green Revolution can play in defining the future of the nation.
How many jobs would the Green Revolution have to generate in order to offset the losses that will occur in this recession? How many jobs would it have to create to match the information technology sector of the 1990s? The most recent forecasts of job growth from the Green Revolution seem to focus on the values developed from a few industry studies. For example, one report prepared by the Rand Corporation and the University of Tennessee suggested that 5 million new green jobs would be generated by 2025 if 25 percent of America's energy needs were produced from renewable resources. (1) The most frequently cited study generally in support of the green issue is a study conducted by the American Solar Energy Society, which estimated that 40 million green-collar jobs would be created by 2030. (2)
But other studies generate doubts about these estimates. A study by the Environmental Law and Policy Center estimated that only 37,000 jobs would be created by 2020 in the ten Midwestern states most suited for wind-generated power production--not a large number even given the most positive estimates. (3)
The definition of a green-collar job is still fluid and in most cases depends upon the product and its uses in the market. Some authors want to insert social goals into the definition using concepts like the living wage, well-defined career paths, and protection from outsourcing. The reality is that green jobs are tied to an ill-defined mix of economic, social, and political goals that may or may not be closely linked to environmental concerns.
Jobs generated in support of the politically-popular goal of energy independence may not be green at all. Obviously, a strategy of Alaskan and off-shore drilling may make the nation more energy independent and at the sine time not be environmentally friendly. In fact, many of the jobs associated with global warming, pollution control, and waste utilization may be at best loosely linked to being green. The act of creative destruction will generate offsetting job losses at the same time that green jobs are created.
Other issues linked to the impact of ethanol production and nuclear power have both positive and negative implications for markets and the environment. Solar and wind power production efforts have been on the drawing board for decades but have yet to be proven to be economically feasible alternatives to traditional fossil fuels, particularly in periods of declining fuel prices. Given the ideal combinations of political and economic forces, investments in new industries that will generate new jobs can be profitable for the nation and the environment.
A fragmented set of policies and laws will be difficult to overcome in any new legislation. The Renewable Fuels, Consumer Protection, and Energy Efficiency Act of 2007 is a step in the right direction even if it lacks some of the enforcement tools and incentives necessary to be effective. (4) Supportive legislation like the Energy Independence and Security Act authorized $125 million in job training, but that is only a small step forward in a long-run march toward developing a green-collar labor force. (5)
In conclusion, the future of green-collar jobs and the green revolution is still in doubt in the short run but has the strength of long-run forces moving the economic, political, social, and environmental goals forward. Without doubt, positive momentum has been generated by the latest round of energy prices and long-term concerns about the environmental condition of the world. Yet, the forces of opposition for the Green Revolution will gain strength from a prolonged recession and the negative impact of the credit crisis. Declining energy prices (even if only for the short run) will have a negative impact on the long-run development of infant green industries and green jobs. If the economic recovery is delayed, the economic crisis will divert attention from the focus on energy independence and environmental responsibility. The potential job growth numbers from the Green Revolution will help offset the recession's job losses but will not be sufficient to generate a new powerful force for economic expansion. The necessary and sufficient conditions required for generating lasting changes to the structure of the economy and how we deal with the environmental concerns have only just begun. Time will tell if the outlook for green industries and green jobs is realized or simply postponed.
by John E. Gnuschke, Ph.D., Director, Sparks Bureau of Business and Fogelman College of Business & The University of Memphis
(1) Bryan Walsh, "What Is a Green-Collar Job Exactly?" Time.com, May 26, 2008. http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1809506,00.html (accessed August 7, 2008).
(2) Keith Johnson, "Take Two: Green Collar Jobs," WSJ.com, February 1, 2008. http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/02/01 /take-two-green-collar-jobs/ (accessed August 7, 2008).
(3) Russ Juskalian, "The True Color of 'Green-Collar' Jobs," CJR.org, May 1, 2008. http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory /the true color_of_greencollar.php?page=all (accessed August 7, 2008).
(4) Martin LaMonica, "FAQ: New Energy Act Gets Green Light, " CNET News. corn, December 19, 2007. http:// news.cnet.com/FAQ-New-Energy-Act-gets-green-light/2100-13836_3-6223567.html (accessed August 7, 2008).
(5) Van Jones, "Green-Collar Jobs: Energy Bill Includes Christmas Present for Nation's Job Seekers," Huffington Post.com, December 21, 2007. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/van-joneslgreencollar-jobs-energy_b_77934.html (accessed August 7, 2008).
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