Complications Seen - KRG Opposition.

The Jan. 31 elections are not expected to deliver the final results for a few weeks. Nevertheless, it appears from initial media reports that Maleki is the main winner. While a crucial symbol of normalisation and democratisation, however, the provincial elections risk blurring and slowing down political progress on several key questions - particularly with regard to Iraq's petroleum industry.

While the Council of Representatives (parliament) remains a product of the domestic situation since 2004/05 - when many Sunnis boycotted the political process and religious political parties dominated the Shi'ite scene - the regional bodies now are likely to have a somewhat different set-up, with new groups enjoying greater perceived legitimacy and a stronger sense of new-won power vis-a-vis the central government than would have been the case if parliamentary elections had been held in advance or simultaneously.

The situation risks being further complicated by the unclear division of power between the central government and the regions in situations where regions can vote to create autonomous entities, along the lines of the KRG in the north. With the constitution being notoriously vague on the degree of autonomy allowed - it had to be acceptable to all sides in order to be passed in October 2005 - it has resulted in the central government and the KRG being locked in a protracted battle over who controls Kurdistan's natural resources, effectively halting the development of a national petroleum law.

While the Maleki government has gone to great lengths to strengthen the centre in Iraq and to reign in local governments in regions where local politicians were seen to be taking liberties, regional governments seeing themselves strengthened by a new popular mandate might provide more effective resistance.

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