Implications.(Iraq's election)(Brief article)

Unless factions close to Maleki make a strong showing in Shi'ite areas, the regional elections are unlikely to result in political progress on stalled core hydrocarbon issues like the petroleum law or the national revenue sharing law, anytime soon. Most likely, the election of a number of emboldened regional governing bodies would lead to renewed resistance to Maleki's centralising policies, with the power over petroleum resources taking centre stage in the south.

The case for Basra's autonomy still looks relatively weak for now, but should not be under-estimated, especially as the election of a number of Sunni-dominated regional bodies in central and western Iraq might complicate matters further.

The best way for Iraq to move forward following these elections is to set a date for national parliamentary polls. But if the Shi'ite religious parties which now dominate parliament turn out to be the Jan. 31 election's main losers, they might be reluctant, hoping for another turn in the popular mood in the future. This would produce a situation where national legislation on the core petroleum issues becomes further stalled and any reforms likely to be torn up by the next government.

Print Get the Mag Weekly Updates