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Weekly UpdatesA new issue is adding to the numerous problems of Iraq: whether or not the next head of the Iraqi Republic will be a Kurd, as President Jalal Talabani does not want to have a second term when the current one ends. This makes the Kurdish question in Iraq more complicated - with Iraq's immediate neighbours pondering the way they may benefit if and when the US leaves this country - where the challenges of terrorism remain serious. What makes this issue complicated is that Shi'ite PM Nuri al-Maleki wants a potential Sunni Arab ally - who is secular - to become the next president of Iraq.
Syria and the US have begun a direct dialogue and the result of this so far is the realisation in Damascus that there is not much difference between the demands of its regime from the Democratic administration of Barack Hussein Obama and those of the Republican team of George W. Bush. But while Obama is engaging in a dialogue, Bush shunned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on all occasions through his eight years at the White House, and the change of style is hardly satisfactory to Damascus (see Part 42 in sbme2IraqSyrFeb23-09 and news11SyrUS-Mar16-09).
The Shi'ite theocracy of Iran is fully aware that now is the opportunity to engage in direct talks with Washington as the time element, which was in favour of Tehran during the Bush administration, will no longer be in its interest, due to Obama's overtures to Moscow. Like the US, Russia and the Sunni Arab world are suspicious of Iran's nuclear and regional ambitions. There is also the potential of China, the other permanent member of the UNSC still having good relations with Iran, joining the US tackling Tehran's ambitions. But it seems the theocracy is not yet ready for dialogue with Obama despite his warm March 20 overture (see news12IrnUS-Mar23-09).
President Talabani's office on March 14 confirmed that he would not seek a second term, setting off speculation over a battle for his successor and whether the Kurds would retain the post of president, one of the three top jobs in the Iraqi state. Talabani, 76, said he would leave office at the end of his current term in an interview broadcast on March 13 by Press TV, an Iranian network, while he was visiting Tehran.
His office on March 14 released a statement saying Talabani would "relinquish a second term" but continue to be active in the Kurdish political party he leads - the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). His term will end when a new president is chosen by the Council of Representatives (parliament), probably in the spring of 2010, after the next parliamentary elections due in December 2009.
The presidency is considered the second-highest-ranking position in Iraq, after the PM, and Talabani has used it to be a broker between ethnic and religious blocs within the government. When he steps down there is all but certain to be sharp competition between Sunni Arabs and Kurds for the post. The post of PM is held by a Shi'ite, and it is likely to remain so as the Shi'ites are a majority in Iraq. Both Sunnis and Kurds have laid claim to the presidency.
Independent but outspoken and respected Kurdish PM Mahmoud 'Uthman says: "Either it will go to a Sunni Aran, or if it stays in the hands of the Kurds, the two Kurdish parties will have to decide between them who will get it". 'Uthman is allied with both Talabani's PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of Mas'oud Barzani. Barzani is already president of Kurdistan and firmly controls the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) whose PM is his nephew.
Although the news was not unexpected - Talabani has a heart ailment and has often spoken casually of retiring - his PUK is in disarray. The PUK, which controls the eastern part of Kurdistan bordering with Iran and its capital is Suleimaniya, is deeply divided about who should be his successor.
The statement indicated that Talabani would remain active in trying to help his party through this turbulent period, adding: "He is willing to relinquish a second term and to devote himself to his general political and party duties". In the TV interview, he said that at the end of his term, "I hope to retire, to go back home and to have time for writing my memoirs".
The presidency has limited powers, a conscious decision by the framers of the new Iraqi constitution to ensure that no one again accrued the kind of power exercised by Saddam Hussein. The main power of the Presidency Council, which also includes two vice presidents, a Shi'ite and a Sunni, is to approve or veto legislation passed by parliament.
Talabani has used the position to try to resolve disputes between various factions within the government and to reach out to foreign leaders, including some who have not been on good terms with Iraq in the past. He is a regular visitor to Tehran, although there remains widespread antagonism in Iraq towards Iran because of the legacy of the Iran-Iraq war.
Talabani has reached out to Turkey, which has had a fraught relationship with Iraqi Kurdistan because the region has allowed Kurdish rebels who are fighting Turkey to live in the mountains of northern Iraq.
Independent Shi'ite MP and former security minister Qassem Da'oud, who worked with the PUK leader when both men were members of the exiled opposition to Saddam in the years before the US invasion, says: "President Talabani really is a unique person who has a sort of national, rather than a Kurdish, attitude. All sides work with him because everyone feels he is working for Iraq".
Interviewed on various issues by the local media, President Talabani on March 16 denied that the KRG intended to declare independence and thus secede from Iraq. He said such a thing was "only a dream", not a reality. He stressed the impossibility of an independent Kurdistan in the north of Iraq because that region was landlocked and will never be able to receive any link to the outside world, such as to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe through Turkey and/or Syria, to the former Soviet Union (FSU) including the Caspian through Iran, or to the Persian Gulf and the Arab world through Iraq.
In dealing with Kurdish affairs in the north, Talabani is more moderate than Barzani. A liberal and modest but blunt politician, Talabani is a flexible man and always prefers making concessions to, rather than confronting, his rivals. Barzani by contrast is a wily politician deeply suspicious of PM Maleki's ultelior motives. A combative man, Barzani will not compromise on KRG's claim to the oil-rich region of Kirkuk, on KRG's petroleum development policy and various other issues. Whereas Talabani is progressive, with a socialist background, Barzani is a feudal person for whom Kurdish tribalism is important.
Barzani will not hesitate to wage war with Maleki's forces if the latter try to control areas claimed by the KRG. He is counting on the KRG's alliance with the US and, unlike Talabani, he is reluctant to force the PKK rebels out of KRG's mountain as Turkey has been demanding. But as long as he is active in PUK affairs, Talabani will always try to moderate Barzani on any matter. Talabani is worried that the US influence over Iraq will diminish in the coming years and wants Barzani to be more pragmatic in dealing with Baghdad.
Nor it is clear whether the foreign minister of Iraq will remain a Kurd after the exit of Talabani from the Presidency Council. The current Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari is part of the KDP and is a close relative of Barzani. He has proved to be an effective man in dealing with Iraq's external affairs, being an excellent diplomat and a good speaker.
Barzani is betting on an alliance with Turkey to counter Iranian influences on the KRG area. But Talabani, on excellent terms with Tehran, believes once the US leaves Iraq the country will fall under Iranian control. Barzani sharply disagrees with this assessment, pointing to the fact that Iran's popularity even among Iraq's Shi'ite Arabs has declined considerably - judging by the outcome of the Jan. 31 provincial elections (see fap3IraqUS-Mar9-09 - see also below).
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