Message from President George Dennison.

For decades, The Montana Business Quarterly has kept Montanans abreast of the breaking economic news, good or bad. As a result, most of us have, over the years, managed to maintain a realistic perspective on the likely prospects. However, not since the early 80s have we witnessed such trauma threatening to overwhelm us, nor have we stood in such need of objective, detailed analysis. Thus, we welcome this issue with its focus on the economic outlook for the coming year and beyond, whether good or bad. We simply need guidance about what to accept and reject from the daily cacophony of predictions and projections.

The analysts for the Quarterly keep us grounded in the differences between the Montana and the national economy, even as they alert us to the influences exerted by the latter in combination with international developments. The people who attended the outlook seminars held around state will find the discussion familiar, while those who missed those seminars will have a chance to get up to date. It seems irrefutable that we Montanans will have to get prepared for some tough going over the next few months. However, it also appears--as usual--that the Montana economy, while seriously affected, will not go down nearly as fast or as far as has occurred elsewhere. We need realistic and careful policies and actions to mitigate the impact of the recession and get us through these next few months, possible only if we remain well informed.

In my view, the Quarterly's service to the state during these trying times merits special recognition and commendation. While personnel changes occur from time to time as in any institution, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of Montana's long-standing and recognized source of proven and trustworthy economic analysis, persists in the effort to provide a voice of reasoned analysis so critical during such difficult times. I commend this issue to the readers on those grounds.

George M. Dennison

President

The University of Montana

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