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Weekly UpdatesI can't tell you how many times I have been asked in the last few weeks, "What's wrong with Razorback baseball?" Granted, it has some validity given the collapse at the end of the regular season.
The season, however, is a body of work over three-plus months, not three weeks, and it has been a solid season with an unofficial No. 13 ratings percentage index going into tournament play (Arkansas was competing in the Southeastern Conference tourney as the No. 7 seed at press time). Two SEC Tournament wins over the red-hot No. 2 seed Florida Gators, against losses to Georgia and Vanderbilt, helps the team and fans forget about the end-of-season slide.
In the preseason, the Hogs were picked to finish fourth in the SEC West behind LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama. So the "experts" forecast proved true as the Hogs landed exactly there, which earned them the No. 7 tourney seed. Perhaps UA coach Dave Van Horn was playing for that slot down the stretch. With the wins over Florida in the tourney, he has won 10 of his last 11 versus the Gators, and it allowed the Hogs to play into the weekend in Hoover.
Early-season victories were keyed by late-inning heroics, timely hitting, patchwork pitching and periodic contributions from reserve players. The proverbial well ran dry the last month of the season and so did the wins.
That's baseball: It's just too hard to keep winning with that type of play over a 50-plus-game season. Ninety-nine percent of the college baseball teams experienced dips and dives during the season; such slumps are a matter of when, not if. The Georgia Bulldogs, the 2008 NCAA runner-up and preseason SEC East favorite, went from a No. I ranking to unranked and finished their regular season losing 10 of their last 12 SEC ballgames.
Van Horn's squad isn't the only team limping into tournament play. The SEC is not the place to try to tread water when your ball club is struggling.
Facing what is believed to be the three best ball clubs in the Southeastern Conference (LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama), the Razorbacks managed only a 1-8 finish to the conference regular season. The Ole Miss series was especially disappointing given the poor play in the final two ballgames. Getting whipped 16-3 on Senior Day raises the question of whether Van Horn's team needs to let go of the reins a bit. The Florida win seems to dispel that thought but it was a sloppy ballgame by both clubs, so let's see how it plays out over the next couple of weeks.
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Although the team didn't undergo the kind of meltdown the Razorback basketball team experienced, the 10-2 conference start and the big nonconference wins over Arizona State, Cal, Oklahoma and Nebraska seem to be a distant memory. The Diamond Hogs will make the 64-team NCAA tournament field likely as a No. 3 seed, though they could achieve a No. 2 seed with a strong SEC tournament run. The end-of-season slide did keep them from hosting a regional, but that might not be all bad, considering Arkansas' recent lack of success playing at Baum Stadium in the postseason.
The hope is the Hogs haven't peaked already and can find that magic again. My gut feeling is they peaked around early April following the Arizona State victories. Postseason wins will be hard to come by with an offense that ranks at the bottom of the SEC in nearly every category and a pitching staff that can't find a solid starter after junior lefty Dallas Keuchel (7-3, 3.89 ERA). We're hopeful Keuchel can rebound from a shaky outing against Florida, where he didn't make it out of the fourth inning.
The upside is that the Razorbacks typically do have solid relief pitching anchored by dependable closer Stephen Richards (5-0, 8 saves, 0.89 ERA) and steady offensive performance and leadership from Andy Wilkins, Chase Leavitt, Ben Tschepikow and Scott Lyons. The issue has been the inconsistent contribution from others, resulting in the .269 team batting average, which ranks 265 out of 288 Division I baseball programs. It's easy to pitch around Wilkins and crew when others aren't producing.
NCAA Tournament brackets should be announced about the time this publication hits the newsstands. If the Razorbacks can get the train back on the tracks and draw the right matchups, a tournament run isn't out of the question. The Hogs played a super-tough schedule to prepare for postseason and have experienced wins over high-caliber opponents.
Just remember that the 2008 NCAA champion, Fresno State, was unranked and ended up being the lowest-seeded team ever to win the College World Series. At this time of year, becoming hot at the right time is what counts. Let's hope the Razorbacks find that midseason form and punch a ticket to Omaha.
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