The Challenges Of Terrorism - Iraq, Part 45 - Reforms & Corruption.

Iraq's Shi'ite PM Nuri al-Maleki is embarked on meaningful political reforms aimed at shifting the process from "consensus democracy", which is close to toralitarian rule, to real democracy where the rule should emanate from the majority in the country's Council of Representatives (parliament). In parallel, Iraq's Shi'ite religious authority, Grand Ayatullah 'Ali al-Sistani, now says this country cannot be ruled by a sectarian majority.

Coming from an Iranian-born theologian of such high standing, Sistani's new view is significant. This is because it is in contrast to the Wilayat ul-Faqih (WuF) concept of rule being applied by the Shi'ite theocracy in neighbouring Iran. A leading figure of the quietist school of theologians in Ja'fari Shi'ism, Sistani is thus confirming what most of Iraq's Ja'fari Arabs insist, that the WuF formula is not viable in any part of this country (see rim5IrqWuF-May25-09).

A sharp decline in state income resulting from low oil prices means Iraq is having security problems which, if not checked, could cause escalation in terrorism and yet another Sunni-Shi'ite war. This time the threat is coming from money flowing in from the nearby Arab Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries (see Part 44 in sbme4IrqSecurityApr13-09).

In view of this, US combat troops will stay in Iraq for years beyond an end-2011 deadline set by the Iraqi-American Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed in late 208. This was stated on May 26 by US Army Chief of Staff Lt Gen George Casey. He said his planning envisioned combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade as part of a sustained American commitment to fighting extremism and terrorism in the Greater Middle East (GME).

Casey said: "Global trends are pushing in the wrong direction. They fundamentally will change how the Army works". He spoke at an invitation-only briefing to a dozen journalists and policy analysts from Washington-based think-tanks. His calculations about force levels were related to his attempt to ease the brutal deployment calendar which he said would "bring the Army to its knees". Casey would not specify how combat units would be divided between Iraq and Afghanistan. He said the top US commander in Iraq, Army Lt Gen Raymond Odierno was leading a study to determine how far American forces could be cut back in Iraq and still be effective.

Casey said his comments about the long war in Iraq were not meant to conflict with Obama administration policies. President Barack Obama plans to bring US combat forces home from Iraq in 2010/11. Although several senior US officials have suggested Iraq could request an extension, their SOFA would have to be amended for any significant US presence to remain.

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