The EU Market.

Jolted by sudden interruptions of Russian gas supplies in recent years and by Gazprom warnings that Brussels must back its new pipeline projects, the EU is seeking to diversify its sources of gas. Equally if not more important, the EU is embarked on an energy efficiency strategy and is thus the first advanced economic bloc to achieve a sustained reduction in its demand for gas and power.

Even if only half successful, the energy strategy will enable the EU to cut its demand for gas, and stop electricity consumption growing, based only on technology in use today. Thus by 2030, EU gas use could be cut to the level of the early 1990s. That would represent a cut of 125 BCM/y - equivalent to the combined use of Germany, France and Spain.

Most of the potential for savings is in Europe's homes rather than industry, which has already improved its energy efficiency greatly. The biggest single contribution would come from greater use of more efficient condensing boilers, which are in use in 50% of homes in the Netherlands but are much less common in other EU countries. Cutting power demand is more difficult because of the spread of gadgets such as MP3 players and personal computers, but there are still large gains possible from using energy-saving light-bulbs and less wasteful standby modes on electronic products.

EU states will need to legislate to make these changes happen, as they have done with light-bulbs, because the more efficient products often cost more to buy. But the 2020 target creates pressure for that legislation to be passed. Success in moving towards that target will cut the EU's dependence on Russian gas, which would otherwise rise as the bloc's own output declines. It weakens the commercial case for new gas import pipelines, such as the Nord Stream and South Stream routes.

The disruption to supplies caused by the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in early 2006 and early 2009 reignited concerns in the EU about securing gas imports. But energy efficiency, if the EU manages to deliver it, could be the biggest contribution possible for energy security in Europe.

Imagine what will happen in the US, the largest energy market in the world, if the Obama administration succeeds in ending American dependence on foreign oil through a ten-year low-carbon strategy. This has been drummed up by Obama before and after his Nov. 4, 2008, election as the first African-American president of the US.

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