The Challenges Of Terrorism - Iraq, Part 46 - The Focus On Iran's WuF.

With Iraq's Shi'ite PM Nuri al-Maleki embarked on meaningful political reforms aimed at shifting the process from "consensus democracy", which is close to toralitarian rule, to real democracy where the rule should emanate from the majority in the country's Council of Representatives (parliament), now the focus in Iraq is also on the way Iran's Shi'ite theocracy is dealing with its crisis over what appears to be a grossly rigged June 12 re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad to a second four-year term.

The challenge of the theocracy in Iran now is whether or not its Wilayat ul-Faqih (WuF) concept will survive the crisis. This is in view of a fierce power-struggle between the theocracy's supremacist wing and a coalition of reformist and conservative factions accusing Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei of having allowed for the June 12 elections to be grossly rigged in favour of Ahmadi-Nejad.

Those accusing Ahmadi-Nejad's camp of having rigged the elections are backers of the three candidates who ran against the incumbent for the presidency: former PM Mir-Hussein Moussavi who is backed by the reformists, top-ranking theologian and reformist former parliament speaker Mehdi Karubi, and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Reza'ei. Reza'ei on June 23 stopped the pursuit of his charges to the Guardians Council (GC) because he had become convinced this supremacist-guided electoral watchdog was no longer partial in his case.

Moussavi and Karubi have joined forces in a reformist/conservative coalition going head-on in its confrontation with the Khamenei/Ahmadi-Nejad camp which is guided by the supremacist wing, including the IRGC, its volunteer militia arm the Basij, the various security forces and intelligence network and an elite of hardline theologians led by secretive figures like Ayatullah Muhammad-Taqi Musbah-Yazdi. The spiritual patron of Ahmadi-Nejad and the top IRGC commanders, Musbah-Yazdi is a highly controversial figure in the Ja'fari Shi'ite world (see below).

In parallel, Iraq's highest Ja'fari authority, Grand Ayatullah Ali al-Sistani, has lately been stressing that this country cannot be ruled by a sectarian majority. Coming from an Iranian-born theologian of such high standing, Sistani's view is significant. This is because it is in contrast to the WuF concept of rule in Iran.

A leading figure of the quietist school of theologians in Ja'fari Shi'ism, Sistani is thus confirming what most of Iraq's Ja'fari Arabs insist, that the WuF formula is not viable in any part of this country or elsewhere in the Islamic world (see rim5IrqWuF-May25-09). Whatever will happen to Iran, therefore, will affect Iraq in a big way because of its Ja'fari Shi'ite majority.

A sharp decline in state income resulting from low oil prices, meanwhile, means that Iraq is having security problems which, if not checked, could cause escalation in terrorism and yet another Sunni-Shi'ite war. This time the threat is coming from money flowing in from personal donors in the nearby Arab Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries (see Part 44 in sbme4IrqSecurityApr13-09).

In view of this, US combat troops appear likely to stay in Iraq for years beyond an end-2011 deadline set by the Iraqi-American Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed in late 2008. This was stated on May 26 by US Army Chief of Staff Lt Gen George Casey. He said his planning envisioned combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade as part of a sustained American commitment to fighting extremism and terrorism in the Greater Middle East (GME). There is the problem that Shi'ite-Sunni tensions in Iraq are recurring already (see rim6IrqSunniShi'iteTensnJun29-09). Another problem in Iraq is widespread corruption which Maleki's reforms campaign does not seem likely to stamp out soon (see Part 45 in sbme5IrqRfmMay25-09).

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