The Challenges Of Terrorism - Iraq, Part 47 - The Lebanon, Kurds & Iran Factors.

Developments in Lebanon, Kurdistan in the north, and Iran are having different effects on the challenges of terrorism in Iraq and the challenges being faced by the country's central government in Baghdad. Each of these three factors reflects geo-strategic developments in the Greater Middle East (GME), by far the world's largest energy reservoir stretching from south-eastern Russia to the Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak) front. Energy and terrorism in the GME are the most important factors to the global economy's future.

With Iraq's Ja'fari Shi'ite PM Nuri al-Maleki embarked on meaningful reforms aimed at shifting the process from consensus politics, which is close to a totalitarian regime, to real democracy where the rule should emanate from the majority in the country's Council of Representatives (parliament), now the focus in Iraq is also on the way Iran's Ja'fari theocracy is dealing with its crisis over what is claimed to be a grossly rigged June 12 re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad to a second four-year term. The challenge of the theocracy in Iran now is whether or not its Wilayat ul-Faqih (WuF) concept will survive the crisis and its aftermath (see Part 46 in sbme6IrqFocusOnIrn'sWuF-Jun29-09).

Lebanon is to become a member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) from Jan. 1, 2010. So Beirut next year will be a magnet for inter-Arab politics and international diplomacy. Most of the actions of the Lebanese government, which is yet to be formed, will help set the course for the GME, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt now resolved to put their weight behind a cabinet to be headed by Sa'd al-Hariri.

The shape of Hariri's cabinet will indicate which of the two rival camps in the GME, the Iran-led axis of anti-US/anti-Israel forces or the Saudi-led Sunni front in the Muslim world, will hold the balance of power in this most vital part of the globe (see news3LbSauEgSyIrnJuly20-09).

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