Differences & Similarities Between Iraq & Lebanon.

The GME is the region where the world's strongest powers have staked a great deal of their bargaining positions in geo-strategic terms. Lebanon and Iraq will be at the heart of the bargaining games which will have a new turn from early 2010. Iraq's crucial parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in January 2010. The outcome of Lebanon's June 7 legislative elections is now being tested in a hot contest between the Iran-led axis and the Saudi-led Sunni front. Iran's June 12 presidential elections caused the worst crisis in the history of the theocracy.

One of the similarities between Lebanon and Iraq is that Maleki and PM-designate Hariri want real democracy, while their rivals insist on a consensus cabinet. Such a cabinet would enable the rivals to block decisions which are not in their interests and - more importantly - the interests of their external movers or backers, such as Iran and Syria in both cases. Like Hariri, Maleki wants to distance Iraq from the Iran-led axis. But Maleki is resisting some US demands, such as reconciliation with moderate Ba'thists to be invited to a Washington conference.

If Hariri's government turns the Lebanese balance of power in favour of the US/Saudi-backed March 14 camp, at the expense of the axis-led March 8 camp, then the chances of a similar outcome in Iraq after its elections will be strong. But whereas Lebanon will still face serious threats from an Israel ruled by a coalition of right-wing, ultra-nationalist and religious parties opposed to a US-sponsored Arab-Israeli peace process and Syria's Alawite/Ba'thist regime, Iraq will have to deal with the Kurdistan and Iranian/Syrian factors.

So there will be a big difference between the developments in Lebanon and those in Iraq in the coming year. But the preparations for 2010 in Lebanon and Iraq in the coming months will only be partly similar. Behind the calm in Lebanon will be a Saudi-Syrian rapprochement being negotiated behind the scenes, whereby the Saudi-led Sunni front will back a resumption of talks between Assad's regime and Israel.

However, a calm in Iraq will await a dialogue between the US and Iran and that is complicated in view of the latter's crisis. This is between Qom and Tehran, as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei is facing more senior theologians in the holy city accusing him of having broken basic WuF rules.

The conflict between Qom and Tehran could be quite serious and, as Mohsen Reza'ie has warned, the whole idea of the WuF will be undermined unless Khamenei makes peace with his Qom-based opponents. This crisis is being watched closely by Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria, as well as by the US/EU and the rest of the Sunni world (as explained in this week's Diplomat, news3LbSauEgSyIrnJuly20-09).

A Saudi-Syrian deal is partly conditional on Damascus bringing about detente in relations between Tehran and the Sunni world. In turn, this is conditional on Tehran altering course in favour of dialogue with Washington, which will mean a big change in Iranian policies which should curb its nuclear and regional ambitions; and Lebanon as well as Iraq will be testing grounds for this. Here come points of similarity between Lebanon and Iraq.

Print Get the Mag Weekly Updates