Mobile Edition
Print
Get the Mag
Weekly UpdatesIn his first visit to Kurdistan since June 2007, Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maleki on Aug. 2 met with Kurdistan President Barzani and the two rivals pledged to resolve their disputes which had threatened to spill into fighting. The conflict between Baghdad and Kurdistan's capital Erbil is seen as the most dangerous threat to Iraq's stability, and US officials have repeatedly and strongly urged both sides to resolve their disputes before most American troops complete their withdrawal from Iraq by August 2010.
At a joint news conference with Barzani and Iraqi President Talabani, Maleki said: "The challenges which face the political process require more meetings and co-operation between all Iraqi people. I am very optimistic after this meeting". Barzani said there was to be a bilateral dialogue and a KRG delegation would visit Baghdad "to solve all the problems", including a dispute with Iraq's Oil Ministry over the legality of KRG's EPSAs and the legality of the Oil Ministry's offering of fields which Erbil says is in violation of Iraq's constitution as it includes fields within Kurdistan being allocated without consultation with the KRG.
The talks were held in a summer resort town of Dukan, 75 km north-west of Suleimaniya, capital of Talabani's eastern half of Kurdistan and the northern region's second-largest city. Maleki's trip to Kurdistan had first been pressed by US leaders, notably including VP Joseph Biden (president Barack Obama's point man in Iraq), Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Defence Secretary Robert Gates who was the last of the three to visit Iraq.
The dispute between the two sides includes a disagreement over a petroleum law to share oil and gas revenues and manage petroleum reserves, among of the world's largest; demarcation of the border between Kurdistan and Iraq's Arab regions; and the fate of Kirkuk, an oil-rich area - mainly a city - with mixed Arab (mainly Shi'ite Arabs), Kurdish and Turkoman ethnicities. The Kurds want to expand their region to include Kirkuk, which produces a fifth of Iraq's crude oil, and other towns and villages along the border between Iraq's Arab and Kurdish regions, many of them predominantly Kurdish.
Barzani has repeatedly vowed not to give up Kirkuk and demanded a census and a referendum on the city's fate, as laid out in the Iraqi constitution. Barzani has resisted US advice for him to visit Baghdad and discuss directly with Maleki on a possible solution, arguing that the Iraqi PM has been at fault by trying to amend the constitution to undermine the KRG claim to Kirkuk and suggesting that Maleki visit Erbil for talks. Maleki rejected that demand. But Barham Saleh, Iraq's Kurdish deputy PM, suggested the meeting in Eastern Kurdistan might be more suitable to lessen the tension as Talabani was less intransigent on the disputed issues than Barzani.
On the sidelines of the meeting, Saleh said: "It is very important to clear the air and to instill confidence about the situation between Baghdad and the region. He confirmed to an APS source that Talabani chaired the meeting and thus "acted more as a mediator than a direct party". Saleh told reporters: "Both sides reaffirmed their commitment within the constitution to solve all the problems".
This was seen in Baghdad as a major concession. Before the Aug. 2 meeting, Maleki used to insist on amending the constitution to change its Article 140, which calls for a census of and a referendum on the future of Kirkuk. Maleki and fellow Shi'ite Arabs had been insisting that a referendum must be avoided at this stage because it may risk igniting a fight between the Kurds and the Arabs.
Barzani and Talabani have been under intense pressure from their parties and the Kurdish population that the referendum, postponed repeatedly since 2007, must be held which also requires a census. These are highly controversial issues as the Kurdish population of Kirkuk has increased considerably since the US invasion in 2003, partly with the help of Maleki until mid-2007 in return for support from the KDP-PUK coalition.
Both the KDP and PUK have been opposed to amending the constitution and their coalition in the Iraqi Council of Representatives (parliament) can veto such a move as it controls at least three provinces - even without Kirkuk and other claimed areas are excluded.
Under the constitution, none of its articles or any other part of the document can be amended if this is opposed by three of Iraq's 18 provinces. In its current size, the KRG territory consists of three provinces - Erbil and Dohuk in the western half (bordering with Turkey) and Suleimaniya in the eastern part of Kurdistan (bordering with Iran).
Many Arab MPs, both Sunni and Shi'ite, on Aug. 3 welcomed the meeting, though there was much criticism in Baghdad. One MP said that Barzani, not Maleki, should have travelled to visit the other. He contended that the trip represented a sign of weakness, hampering the central government's negotiating stance.
At the Dukan press conference, Maleki said: He was "satisfied with this meeting, and we agreed that these meetings should continue at the leadership level" and below. He added that, as part of the dialogue to resolve points of dispute, a team comprising Iraqi and KRG officials would set up shop in Kurdistan while a Kurdish delegation would visit Baghdad.
Maleki said: "An appointed team will start tonight to discuss the political and strategic conflicts. A delegation from Kurdistan will come to Baghdad, and I hope that PM [Brazani's nephew Nechirvan] Barzani will be among the delegation, in order to discuss unfinished issues and resolve the problems".
Erbil's demands to expand KRG's region to include Kirkuk and other areas along Kurdistan's border with the rest of Iraq have triggered an increasingly heated war of words with Maleki's Shi'ite-led government. Barzani insisted in campaigning ahead of July 25 elections that he would not "compromise" on the Kurds' long-standing claims to Kirkuk. But on Aug. 2 he said he was "flexible" and that he and Maleki had "agreed to resolve the problems between us". He described the meeting with Maleki as "very successful".
Visiting Baghdad and Erbil in the previous week, US Defence Secretary Gates urged Arab and KRG leaders to settle their political differences before American troops were to leave Iraq. Under the Iraqi-US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed in late 2008, American forces are due to withdraw from the country by end- 2011.
The top American commander in Iraq, Army Lt Gen Ray Odierno on Aug. 4 was quoted as saying the US military was closely monitoring the situation and had set up liaison offices with commanders of Kurdish peshmerga and Baghdad government forces to try to prevent tensions from escalating. Gates approved the formation of these liaison offices during his visit, according to an APS source in Baghdad on Aug. 8.
The APS source said that, in return to softening to Barzani's stand, Maleki will be seeking to shore up support from the Kurdish parties in the run-up to the January 2010 general elections. Maleki's new Wasat grouping is unlikely to be able to win enough seats on its own to secure a comfortable majority in parliament (see fap6IrqWasatJun15-09).
This mutual support, the APS source explains, is coming at the expense of Iraq's Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani - a tough resource nationalist whose stand against KRG's EPSAs is expected to be affected. The source says Maleki has agreed to consider a compromise formula whereby KRG's EPSAs could be accepted by Baghdad in one way or another.
Kurdish leaders, in turn, are courting Sunni and Shi'ite Arab allies in Baghdad as the US - a close ally of Erbil - reduces its military presence in Iraq. The KDP and PUK have for decades dominated politics in Kurdistan. But their strangle-hold over the region was challenged in the election, as two smaller groups fared better than expected and look set to form the first credible opposition in Erbil's parliament to be led by the bigger party of the two called Change (see fap2-IrqKrdUS-Aug3-09).
FEED